Prediction of Crowd Flow in City Complex with Missing Data

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Shiyang Qiu, Peng Xu, Wei Zheng, Junjie Wang, Guo Yu, Mingyao Hou, Hengchang Liu ;
Proceedings of The Eleventh Asian Conference on Machine Learning, PMLR 101:758-773, 2019.

Abstract

Crowd flow forecasting plays an important role in risk assessment and public safety. It is a difficult task due to complex spatial-temporal dependencies as well as missing values in data. A number of models are proposed to predict crowd flow on city-scale, yet the missing pattern in city complex environment is seldomly considered. We propose a crowd flow forecasting model, Imputed Spatial-Temporal Convolution network(ISTC) to accurately predict the crowd flow in large complex buildings. ISTC uses convolution layers, whose structures are configured by graphs, to model the spatial-temporal correlations. Meanwhile ISTC adds imputation layers to handle the missing data. We demonstrate our model on several real data sets collected from sensors in a large six-floor commercial complex building. The results show that ISTC outperforms the baseline methods and is capable of handling data with as much as 40% missing data.

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