Mixed LICORS: A Nonparametric Algorithm for Predictive State Reconstruction

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Georg Goerg, Cosma Shalizi ;
Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, PMLR 31:289-297, 2013.

Abstract

We introduce mixed LICORS, an algorithm for learning nonlinear, high-dimensional dynamics from spatio-temporal data, suitable for both prediction and simulation. Mixed LICORS extends the recent LICORS algorithm (Goerg and Shalizi, 2012) from hard clustering of predictive distributions to a non-parametric, EM-like soft clustering. This retains the asymptotic predictive optimality of LICORS, but, as we show in simulations, greatly improves out-of-sample forecasts with limited data. The new method is implemented in the publicly-available R package LICORS.

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