Time series prediction and online learning


Vitaly Kuznetsov, Mehryar Mohri ;
29th Annual Conference on Learning Theory, PMLR 49:1190-1213, 2016.


We present a series of theoretical and algorithmic results combining the benefits of the statistical learning approach to time series prediction with that of on-line learning. We prove new generalization guarantees for hypotheses derived from regret minimization algorithms in the general scenario where the data is generated by a non-stationary non-mixing stochastic process. Our theory enables us to derive model selection techniques with favorable theoretical guarantees in the scenario of time series, thereby solving a problem that is notoriously difficult in that scenario. It also helps us devise new ensemble methods with favorable theoretical guarantees for the task of forecasting non-stationary time series.

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