Empirical Interpretation of Imprecise Probabilities
Proceedings of the Tenth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, PMLR 62:61-72, 2017.
This paper investigates the possibility of a frequentist interpretation of imprecise probabilities, by generalizing the approach of Bernoulli’s Ars Conjectandi. That is, by studying, in the case of games of chance, under which assumptions imprecise probabilities can be satisfactorily estimated from data. In fact, estimability on the basis of finite amounts of data is a necessary condition for imprecise probabilities in order to have a clear empirical meaning. Unfortunately, imprecise probabilities can be estimated arbitrarily well from data only in very limited settings.