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Collective Diffusion Over Networks: Models and Inference
Proceedings of the 29th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, PMLR R11:481-490, 2013.
Abstract
Diffusion processes in networks are increas- ingly used to model the spread of informa- tion and social influence. In several applica- tions in computational sustainability such as the spread of wildlife, infectious diseases and traffic mobility pattern, the observed data of- ten consists of only aggregate information. In this work, we present new models that gener- alize standard diffusion processes to such col- lective settings. We also present optimization based techniques that can accurately learn the underlying dynamics of the given conta- gion process, including the hidden network structure, by only observing the time a node becomes active and the associated aggregate information. Empirically, our technique is highly robust and accurately learns network structure with more than 90% recall and pre- cision. Results on real-world flu spread data in the US confirm that our technique can also accurately model infectious disease spread.