Learning Periodic Human Behaviour Models from Sparse Data for Crowdsourcing Aid Delivery in Developing Countries

James McInerney, Alex Rogers, NIcholas Jennings
Proceedings of the 29th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, PMLR R11:165-174, 2013.

Abstract

In many developing countries, half the popula- tion lives in rural locations, where access to es- sentials such as school materials, mosquito nets, and medical supplies is restricted. We propose an alternative method of distribution (to stan- dard road delivery) in which the existing mo- bility habits of a local population are leveraged to deliver aid, which raises two technical chal- lenges in the areas optimisation and learning. For optimisation, a standard Markov decision pro- cess applied to this problem is intractable, so we provide an exact formulation that takes advan- tage of the periodicities in human location be- haviour. To learn such behaviour models from sparse data (i.e., cell tower observations), we de- velop a Bayesian model of human mobility. Us- ing real cell tower data of the mobility behaviour of 50,000 individuals in Ivory Coast, we find that our model outperforms the state of the art ap- proaches in mobility prediction by at least 25% (in held-out data likelihood). Furthermore, when incorporating mobility prediction with our MDP approach, we find a 81.3% reduction in total delivery time versus routine planning that min- imises just the number of participants in the so- lution path.

Cite this Paper

BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-vR11-mcinerney13a, title = {Learning Periodic Human Behaviour Models from Sparse Data for Crowdsourcing Aid Delivery in Developing Countries}, author = {McInerney, James and Rogers, Alex and Jennings, NIcholas}, booktitle = {Proceedings of the 29th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence}, pages = {165--174}, year = {2013}, editor = {Nicholson, Ann and Smyth, Padhraic}, volume = {R11}, series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research}, month = {12--14 Jul}, publisher = {PMLR}, pdf = {https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mlresearch/r11/main/assets/mcinerney13a/mcinerney13a.pdf}, url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/r11/mcinerney13a.html}, abstract = {In many developing countries, half the popula- tion lives in rural locations, where access to es- sentials such as school materials, mosquito nets, and medical supplies is restricted. We propose an alternative method of distribution (to stan- dard road delivery) in which the existing mo- bility habits of a local population are leveraged to deliver aid, which raises two technical chal- lenges in the areas optimisation and learning. For optimisation, a standard Markov decision pro- cess applied to this problem is intractable, so we provide an exact formulation that takes advan- tage of the periodicities in human location be- haviour. To learn such behaviour models from sparse data (i.e., cell tower observations), we de- velop a Bayesian model of human mobility. Us- ing real cell tower data of the mobility behaviour of 50,000 individuals in Ivory Coast, we find that our model outperforms the state of the art ap- proaches in mobility prediction by at least 25% (in held-out data likelihood). Furthermore, when incorporating mobility prediction with our MDP approach, we find a 81.3% reduction in total delivery time versus routine planning that min- imises just the number of participants in the so- lution path.}, note = {Reissued by PMLR on 04 October 2026.} }
Endnote
%0 Conference Paper %T Learning Periodic Human Behaviour Models from Sparse Data for Crowdsourcing Aid Delivery in Developing Countries %A James McInerney %A Alex Rogers %A NIcholas Jennings %B Proceedings of the 29th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence %C Proceedings of Machine Learning Research %D 2013 %E Ann Nicholson %E Padhraic Smyth %F pmlr-vR11-mcinerney13a %I PMLR %P 165--174 %U https://proceedings.mlr.press/r11/mcinerney13a.html %V R11 %X In many developing countries, half the popula- tion lives in rural locations, where access to es- sentials such as school materials, mosquito nets, and medical supplies is restricted. We propose an alternative method of distribution (to stan- dard road delivery) in which the existing mo- bility habits of a local population are leveraged to deliver aid, which raises two technical chal- lenges in the areas optimisation and learning. For optimisation, a standard Markov decision pro- cess applied to this problem is intractable, so we provide an exact formulation that takes advan- tage of the periodicities in human location be- haviour. To learn such behaviour models from sparse data (i.e., cell tower observations), we de- velop a Bayesian model of human mobility. Us- ing real cell tower data of the mobility behaviour of 50,000 individuals in Ivory Coast, we find that our model outperforms the state of the art ap- proaches in mobility prediction by at least 25% (in held-out data likelihood). Furthermore, when incorporating mobility prediction with our MDP approach, we find a 81.3% reduction in total delivery time versus routine planning that min- imises just the number of participants in the so- lution path. %Z Reissued by PMLR on 04 October 2026.
APA
McInerney, J., Rogers, A. & Jennings, N.. (2013). Learning Periodic Human Behaviour Models from Sparse Data for Crowdsourcing Aid Delivery in Developing Countries. Proceedings of the 29th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, in Proceedings of Machine Learning Research R11:165-174 Available from https://proceedings.mlr.press/r11/mcinerney13a.html. Reissued by PMLR on 04 October 2026.

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