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Constraint-based Causal Discovery: Conflict Resolution with Answer Set Programming
Proceedings of the 30th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, PMLR R12:27-36, 2014.
Abstract
Recent approaches to causal discovery based on Boolean satisfiability solvers have opened new opportunities to consider search spaces for causal models with both feedback cycles and unmea- sured confounders. However, the available meth- ods have so far not been able to provide a prin- cipled account of how to handle conflicting con- straints that arise from statistical variability. Here we present a new approach that preserves the ver- satility of Boolean constraint solving and attains a high accuracy despite the presence of statisti- cal errors. We develop a new logical encoding of (in)dependence constraints that is both well suited for the domain and allows for faster solv- ing. We represent this encoding in Answer Set Programming (ASP), and apply a state-of-the- art ASP solver for the optimization task. Based on different theoretical motivations, we explore a variety of methods to handle statistical errors. Our approach currently scales to cyclic latent variable models with up to seven observed vari- ables and outperforms the available constraint- based methods in accuracy.