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Efficient Online Learning for Optimizing Value of Information: Theory and Application to Interactive Troubleshooting
Proceedings of the 33rd Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, PMLR R15:311-320, 2017.
Abstract
We consider the optimal value of information problem, where the goal is to sequentially select a set of tests with a minimal cost, so that one can efficiently make the best decision based on the observed outcomes. Existing algorithms are either heuristics with no guar- antees, or scale poorly (with exponential run time in terms of the number of available tests). Moreover, these methods assume a known distribution over the test outcomes, which is often not the case in practice. We propose a sampling-based online learning framework to address the above issues. First, assuming the distribution over hypotheses is known, we propose a dynamic hypoth- esis enumeration strategy, which allows efficient information gathering with strong theoretical guarantees. We show that with sufficient amount of samples, one can identify a near-optimal decision with high proba- bility. Second, when the parameters of the hypotheses distribution are unknown, we propose an algorithm which learns the pa- rameters progressively via posterior sampling in an online fashion. We further establish a rigorous bound on the expected regret. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on a real-world interactive troubleshooting application, and show that one can efficiently make high-quality decisions with low cost.