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Sequential Learning under Probabilistic Constraints
Proceedings of the 34th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, PMLR R16:620-630, 2018.
Abstract
We provide the first study on online learn- ing problems under stochastic constraints that are “soft”, i.e., need to be satisfied with high probability. These constraints are imposed on all or some stages of the time horizon so that the stage decisions probabilistically satisfy some given safety conditions. The distribu- tions that govern these conditions are learned through the collected observations. Under a Bayesian framework, we introduce a scheme that provides statistical feasibility guarantees through the time horizon, by using posterior Monte Carlo samples to form sampled con- straints which leverage the scenario generation approach in chance-constrained programming. We demonstrate how our scheme can be inte- grated into Thompson sampling and illustrate it with an application in online advertisement.