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Fast Stochastic Quadrature for Approximate Maximum-Likelihood Estimation
Proceedings of the 34th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, PMLR R16:714-723, 2018.
Abstract
Recent stochastic quadrature techniques for undirected graphical models rely on near- minimax degree-k polynomial approximations to the model’s potential function for inferring the partition function. While providing de- sirable statistical guarantees, typical construc- tions of such approximations are themselves not amenable to efficient inference. Here, we develop a class of Monte Carlo sampling algo- rithms for efficiently approximating the value of the partition function, as well as the asso- ciated pseudo-marginals. More precisely, for pairwise models with n vertices and m edges, the complexity can be reduced from O(dk) to O(k4 + kn + m), where d $\geq$4m is the parameter dimension. We also consider the uses of stochastic quadrature for the problem of maximum-likelihood (ML) parameter esti- mation. For completely observed data, our analysis gives rise to a probabilistic bound on the log-likelihood of the model. Maxi- mizing this bound yields an approximate ML estimate which, in analogy to the moment- matching of exact ML estimation, can be inter- preted in terms of pseudo-moment-matching. We present experimental results illustrating the behavior of this approximate ML estimator.