Kernel Conditional Moment Constraints for Confounding Robust Inference

Kei Ishikawa, Niao He
Proceedings of The 26th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, PMLR 206:650-674, 2023.

Abstract

We study policy evaluation of offline contextual bandits subject to unobserved confounders. Sensitivity analysis methods are commonly used to estimate the policy value under the worst-case confounding over a given uncertainty set. However, existing work often resorts to some coarse relaxation of the uncertainty set for the sake of tractability, leading to overly conservative estimation of the policy value. In this paper, we propose a general estimator that provides a sharp lower bound of the policy value. It can be shown that our estimator contains the recently proposed sharp estimator by Dorn and Guo (2022) as a special case, and our method enables a novel extension of the classical marginal sensitivity model using f-divergence. To construct our estimator, we leverage the kernel method to obtain a tractable approximation to the conditional moment constraints, which traditional non-sharp estimators failed to take into account. In the theoretical analysis, we provide a condition for the choice of the kernel which guarantees no specification error that biases the lower bound estimation. Furthermore, we provide consistency guarantees of policy evaluation and learning. In the experiments with synthetic and real-world data, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Cite this Paper

BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v206-ishikawa23a, title = {Kernel Conditional Moment Constraints for Confounding Robust Inference}, author = {Ishikawa, Kei and He, Niao}, booktitle = {Proceedings of The 26th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics}, pages = {650--674}, year = {2023}, editor = {Ruiz, Francisco and Dy, Jennifer and van de Meent, Jan-Willem}, volume = {206}, series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research}, month = {25--27 Apr}, publisher = {PMLR}, pdf = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v206/ishikawa23a/ishikawa23a.pdf}, url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v206/ishikawa23a.html}, abstract = {We study policy evaluation of offline contextual bandits subject to unobserved confounders. Sensitivity analysis methods are commonly used to estimate the policy value under the worst-case confounding over a given uncertainty set. However, existing work often resorts to some coarse relaxation of the uncertainty set for the sake of tractability, leading to overly conservative estimation of the policy value. In this paper, we propose a general estimator that provides a sharp lower bound of the policy value. It can be shown that our estimator contains the recently proposed sharp estimator by Dorn and Guo (2022) as a special case, and our method enables a novel extension of the classical marginal sensitivity model using f-divergence. To construct our estimator, we leverage the kernel method to obtain a tractable approximation to the conditional moment constraints, which traditional non-sharp estimators failed to take into account. In the theoretical analysis, we provide a condition for the choice of the kernel which guarantees no specification error that biases the lower bound estimation. Furthermore, we provide consistency guarantees of policy evaluation and learning. In the experiments with synthetic and real-world data, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.} }
Endnote
%0 Conference Paper %T Kernel Conditional Moment Constraints for Confounding Robust Inference %A Kei Ishikawa %A Niao He %B Proceedings of The 26th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics %C Proceedings of Machine Learning Research %D 2023 %E Francisco Ruiz %E Jennifer Dy %E Jan-Willem van de Meent %F pmlr-v206-ishikawa23a %I PMLR %P 650--674 %U https://proceedings.mlr.press/v206/ishikawa23a.html %V 206 %X We study policy evaluation of offline contextual bandits subject to unobserved confounders. Sensitivity analysis methods are commonly used to estimate the policy value under the worst-case confounding over a given uncertainty set. However, existing work often resorts to some coarse relaxation of the uncertainty set for the sake of tractability, leading to overly conservative estimation of the policy value. In this paper, we propose a general estimator that provides a sharp lower bound of the policy value. It can be shown that our estimator contains the recently proposed sharp estimator by Dorn and Guo (2022) as a special case, and our method enables a novel extension of the classical marginal sensitivity model using f-divergence. To construct our estimator, we leverage the kernel method to obtain a tractable approximation to the conditional moment constraints, which traditional non-sharp estimators failed to take into account. In the theoretical analysis, we provide a condition for the choice of the kernel which guarantees no specification error that biases the lower bound estimation. Furthermore, we provide consistency guarantees of policy evaluation and learning. In the experiments with synthetic and real-world data, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
APA
Ishikawa, K. & He, N.. (2023). Kernel Conditional Moment Constraints for Confounding Robust Inference. Proceedings of The 26th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, in Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 206:650-674 Available from https://proceedings.mlr.press/v206/ishikawa23a.html.

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