Towards a Self-contained Data-driven Global Weather Forecasting Framework

Yi Xiao, Lei Bai, Wei Xue, Hao Chen, Kun Chen, Kang Chen, Tao Han, Wanli Ouyang
Proceedings of the 41st International Conference on Machine Learning, PMLR 235:54255-54275, 2024.

Abstract

Data-driven weather forecasting models are advancing rapidly, yet they rely on initial states (i.e., analysis states) typically produced by traditional data assimilation algorithms. Four-dimensional variational assimilation (4DVar) is one of the most widely adopted data assimilation algorithms in numerical weather prediction centers; it is accurate but computationally expensive. In this paper, we aim to couple the AI forecasting model, FengWu, with 4DVar to build a self-contained data-driven global weather forecasting framework, FengWu-4DVar. To achieve this, we propose an AI-embedded 4DVar algorithm that includes three components: (1) a 4DVar objective function embedded with the FengWu forecasting model and its error representation to enhance efficiency and accuracy; (2) a spherical-harmonic-transform-based (SHT-based) approximation strategy for capturing the horizontal correlation of background error; and (3) an auto-differentiation (AD) scheme for determining the optimal analysis fields. Experimental results show that under the ERA5 simulated observational data with varying proportions and noise levels, FengWu-4DVar can generate accurate analysis fields; remarkably, it has achieved stable self-contained global weather forecasts for an entire year for the first time, demonstrating its potential for real-world applications. Additionally, our framework is approximately 100 times faster than the traditional 4DVar algorithm under similar experimental conditions, highlighting its significant computational efficiency.

Cite this Paper

BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v235-xiao24a, title = {Towards a Self-contained Data-driven Global Weather Forecasting Framework}, author = {Xiao, Yi and Bai, Lei and Xue, Wei and Chen, Hao and Chen, Kun and Chen, Kang and Han, Tao and Ouyang, Wanli}, booktitle = {Proceedings of the 41st International Conference on Machine Learning}, pages = {54255--54275}, year = {2024}, editor = {Salakhutdinov, Ruslan and Kolter, Zico and Heller, Katherine and Weller, Adrian and Oliver, Nuria and Scarlett, Jonathan and Berkenkamp, Felix}, volume = {235}, series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research}, month = {21--27 Jul}, publisher = {PMLR}, pdf = {https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mlresearch/v235/main/assets/xiao24a/xiao24a.pdf}, url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v235/xiao24a.html}, abstract = {Data-driven weather forecasting models are advancing rapidly, yet they rely on initial states (i.e., analysis states) typically produced by traditional data assimilation algorithms. Four-dimensional variational assimilation (4DVar) is one of the most widely adopted data assimilation algorithms in numerical weather prediction centers; it is accurate but computationally expensive. In this paper, we aim to couple the AI forecasting model, FengWu, with 4DVar to build a self-contained data-driven global weather forecasting framework, FengWu-4DVar. To achieve this, we propose an AI-embedded 4DVar algorithm that includes three components: (1) a 4DVar objective function embedded with the FengWu forecasting model and its error representation to enhance efficiency and accuracy; (2) a spherical-harmonic-transform-based (SHT-based) approximation strategy for capturing the horizontal correlation of background error; and (3) an auto-differentiation (AD) scheme for determining the optimal analysis fields. Experimental results show that under the ERA5 simulated observational data with varying proportions and noise levels, FengWu-4DVar can generate accurate analysis fields; remarkably, it has achieved stable self-contained global weather forecasts for an entire year for the first time, demonstrating its potential for real-world applications. Additionally, our framework is approximately 100 times faster than the traditional 4DVar algorithm under similar experimental conditions, highlighting its significant computational efficiency.} }
Endnote
%0 Conference Paper %T Towards a Self-contained Data-driven Global Weather Forecasting Framework %A Yi Xiao %A Lei Bai %A Wei Xue %A Hao Chen %A Kun Chen %A Kang Chen %A Tao Han %A Wanli Ouyang %B Proceedings of the 41st International Conference on Machine Learning %C Proceedings of Machine Learning Research %D 2024 %E Ruslan Salakhutdinov %E Zico Kolter %E Katherine Heller %E Adrian Weller %E Nuria Oliver %E Jonathan Scarlett %E Felix Berkenkamp %F pmlr-v235-xiao24a %I PMLR %P 54255--54275 %U https://proceedings.mlr.press/v235/xiao24a.html %V 235 %X Data-driven weather forecasting models are advancing rapidly, yet they rely on initial states (i.e., analysis states) typically produced by traditional data assimilation algorithms. Four-dimensional variational assimilation (4DVar) is one of the most widely adopted data assimilation algorithms in numerical weather prediction centers; it is accurate but computationally expensive. In this paper, we aim to couple the AI forecasting model, FengWu, with 4DVar to build a self-contained data-driven global weather forecasting framework, FengWu-4DVar. To achieve this, we propose an AI-embedded 4DVar algorithm that includes three components: (1) a 4DVar objective function embedded with the FengWu forecasting model and its error representation to enhance efficiency and accuracy; (2) a spherical-harmonic-transform-based (SHT-based) approximation strategy for capturing the horizontal correlation of background error; and (3) an auto-differentiation (AD) scheme for determining the optimal analysis fields. Experimental results show that under the ERA5 simulated observational data with varying proportions and noise levels, FengWu-4DVar can generate accurate analysis fields; remarkably, it has achieved stable self-contained global weather forecasts for an entire year for the first time, demonstrating its potential for real-world applications. Additionally, our framework is approximately 100 times faster than the traditional 4DVar algorithm under similar experimental conditions, highlighting its significant computational efficiency.
APA
Xiao, Y., Bai, L., Xue, W., Chen, H., Chen, K., Chen, K., Han, T. & Ouyang, W.. (2024). Towards a Self-contained Data-driven Global Weather Forecasting Framework. Proceedings of the 41st International Conference on Machine Learning, in Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 235:54255-54275 Available from https://proceedings.mlr.press/v235/xiao24a.html.

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