Probabilistic Calibration by Design for Neural Network Regression

Victor Dheur, Souhaib Ben Taieb
Proceedings of The 27th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, PMLR 238:3133-3141, 2024.

Abstract

Generating calibrated and sharp neural network predictive distributions for regression problems is essential for optimal decision-making in many real-world applications. To address the miscalibration issue of neural networks, various methods have been proposed to improve calibration, including post-hoc methods that adjust predictions after training and regularization methods that act during training. While post-hoc methods have shown better improvement in calibration compared to regularization methods, the post-hoc step is completely independent of model training. We introduce a novel end-to-end model training procedure called Quantile Recalibration Training, integrating post-hoc calibration directly into the training process without additional parameters. We also present a unified algorithm that includes our method and other post-hoc and regularization methods, as particular cases. We demonstrate the performance of our method in a large-scale experiment involving 57 tabular regression datasets, showcasing improved predictive accuracy while maintaining calibration. We also conduct an ablation study to evaluate the significance of different components within our proposed method, as well as an in-depth analysis of the impact of the base model and different hyperparameters on predictive accuracy.

Cite this Paper

BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v238-dheur24a, title = { Probabilistic Calibration by Design for Neural Network Regression }, author = {Dheur, Victor and Ben Taieb, Souhaib}, booktitle = {Proceedings of The 27th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics}, pages = {3133--3141}, year = {2024}, editor = {Dasgupta, Sanjoy and Mandt, Stephan and Li, Yingzhen}, volume = {238}, series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research}, month = {02--04 May}, publisher = {PMLR}, pdf = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v238/dheur24a/dheur24a.pdf}, url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v238/dheur24a.html}, abstract = { Generating calibrated and sharp neural network predictive distributions for regression problems is essential for optimal decision-making in many real-world applications. To address the miscalibration issue of neural networks, various methods have been proposed to improve calibration, including post-hoc methods that adjust predictions after training and regularization methods that act during training. While post-hoc methods have shown better improvement in calibration compared to regularization methods, the post-hoc step is completely independent of model training. We introduce a novel end-to-end model training procedure called Quantile Recalibration Training, integrating post-hoc calibration directly into the training process without additional parameters. We also present a unified algorithm that includes our method and other post-hoc and regularization methods, as particular cases. We demonstrate the performance of our method in a large-scale experiment involving 57 tabular regression datasets, showcasing improved predictive accuracy while maintaining calibration. We also conduct an ablation study to evaluate the significance of different components within our proposed method, as well as an in-depth analysis of the impact of the base model and different hyperparameters on predictive accuracy. } }
Endnote
%0 Conference Paper %T Probabilistic Calibration by Design for Neural Network Regression %A Victor Dheur %A Souhaib Ben Taieb %B Proceedings of The 27th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics %C Proceedings of Machine Learning Research %D 2024 %E Sanjoy Dasgupta %E Stephan Mandt %E Yingzhen Li %F pmlr-v238-dheur24a %I PMLR %P 3133--3141 %U https://proceedings.mlr.press/v238/dheur24a.html %V 238 %X Generating calibrated and sharp neural network predictive distributions for regression problems is essential for optimal decision-making in many real-world applications. To address the miscalibration issue of neural networks, various methods have been proposed to improve calibration, including post-hoc methods that adjust predictions after training and regularization methods that act during training. While post-hoc methods have shown better improvement in calibration compared to regularization methods, the post-hoc step is completely independent of model training. We introduce a novel end-to-end model training procedure called Quantile Recalibration Training, integrating post-hoc calibration directly into the training process without additional parameters. We also present a unified algorithm that includes our method and other post-hoc and regularization methods, as particular cases. We demonstrate the performance of our method in a large-scale experiment involving 57 tabular regression datasets, showcasing improved predictive accuracy while maintaining calibration. We also conduct an ablation study to evaluate the significance of different components within our proposed method, as well as an in-depth analysis of the impact of the base model and different hyperparameters on predictive accuracy.
APA
Dheur, V. & Ben Taieb, S.. (2024). Probabilistic Calibration by Design for Neural Network Regression . Proceedings of The 27th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, in Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 238:3133-3141 Available from https://proceedings.mlr.press/v238/dheur24a.html.

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