Integrating Uncertainty Awareness into Conformalized Quantile Regression

Raphael Rossellini, Rina Foygel Barber, Rebecca Willett
Proceedings of The 27th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, PMLR 238:1540-1548, 2024.

Abstract

Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) is a recently proposed method for constructing prediction intervals for a response $Y$ given covariates $X$, without making distributional assumptions. However, existing constructions of CQR can be ineffective for problems where the quantile regressors perform better in certain parts of the feature space than others. The reason is that the prediction intervals of CQR do not distinguish between two forms of uncertainty: first, the variability of the conditional distribution of $Y$ given $X$ (i.e., aleatoric uncertainty), and second, our uncertainty in estimating this conditional distribution (i.e., epistemic uncertainty). This can lead to intervals that are overly narrow in regions where epistemic uncertainty is high. To address this, we propose a new variant of the CQR methodology, Uncertainty-Aware CQR (UACQR), that explicitly separates these two sources of uncertainty to adjust quantile regressors differentially across the feature space. Compared to CQR, our methods enjoy the same distribution-free theoretical coverage guarantees, while demonstrating in our experiments stronger conditional coverage properties in simulated settings and real-world data sets alike.

Cite this Paper

BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v238-rossellini24a, title = { Integrating Uncertainty Awareness into Conformalized Quantile Regression }, author = {Rossellini, Raphael and Foygel Barber, Rina and Willett, Rebecca}, booktitle = {Proceedings of The 27th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics}, pages = {1540--1548}, year = {2024}, editor = {Dasgupta, Sanjoy and Mandt, Stephan and Li, Yingzhen}, volume = {238}, series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research}, month = {02--04 May}, publisher = {PMLR}, pdf = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v238/rossellini24a/rossellini24a.pdf}, url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v238/rossellini24a.html}, abstract = { Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) is a recently proposed method for constructing prediction intervals for a response $Y$ given covariates $X$, without making distributional assumptions. However, existing constructions of CQR can be ineffective for problems where the quantile regressors perform better in certain parts of the feature space than others. The reason is that the prediction intervals of CQR do not distinguish between two forms of uncertainty: first, the variability of the conditional distribution of $Y$ given $X$ (i.e., aleatoric uncertainty), and second, our uncertainty in estimating this conditional distribution (i.e., epistemic uncertainty). This can lead to intervals that are overly narrow in regions where epistemic uncertainty is high. To address this, we propose a new variant of the CQR methodology, Uncertainty-Aware CQR (UACQR), that explicitly separates these two sources of uncertainty to adjust quantile regressors differentially across the feature space. Compared to CQR, our methods enjoy the same distribution-free theoretical coverage guarantees, while demonstrating in our experiments stronger conditional coverage properties in simulated settings and real-world data sets alike. } }
Endnote
%0 Conference Paper %T Integrating Uncertainty Awareness into Conformalized Quantile Regression %A Raphael Rossellini %A Rina Foygel Barber %A Rebecca Willett %B Proceedings of The 27th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics %C Proceedings of Machine Learning Research %D 2024 %E Sanjoy Dasgupta %E Stephan Mandt %E Yingzhen Li %F pmlr-v238-rossellini24a %I PMLR %P 1540--1548 %U https://proceedings.mlr.press/v238/rossellini24a.html %V 238 %X Conformalized Quantile Regression (CQR) is a recently proposed method for constructing prediction intervals for a response $Y$ given covariates $X$, without making distributional assumptions. However, existing constructions of CQR can be ineffective for problems where the quantile regressors perform better in certain parts of the feature space than others. The reason is that the prediction intervals of CQR do not distinguish between two forms of uncertainty: first, the variability of the conditional distribution of $Y$ given $X$ (i.e., aleatoric uncertainty), and second, our uncertainty in estimating this conditional distribution (i.e., epistemic uncertainty). This can lead to intervals that are overly narrow in regions where epistemic uncertainty is high. To address this, we propose a new variant of the CQR methodology, Uncertainty-Aware CQR (UACQR), that explicitly separates these two sources of uncertainty to adjust quantile regressors differentially across the feature space. Compared to CQR, our methods enjoy the same distribution-free theoretical coverage guarantees, while demonstrating in our experiments stronger conditional coverage properties in simulated settings and real-world data sets alike.
APA
Rossellini, R., Foygel Barber, R. & Willett, R.. (2024). Integrating Uncertainty Awareness into Conformalized Quantile Regression . Proceedings of The 27th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, in Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 238:1540-1548 Available from https://proceedings.mlr.press/v238/rossellini24a.html.

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