Decoupling epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties with possibility theory

Nong Minh Hieu, Jeremie Houssineau, Neil K. Chada, Emmanuel Delande
Proceedings of The 28th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, PMLR 258:2899-2907, 2025.

Abstract

The special role of epistemic uncertainty in Machine Learning is now well recognised, and an increasing amount of research is focused on methods for dealing specifically with such a lack of knowledge. Yet, most often, a probabilistic representation is considered for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, hence creating challenges in applications where decoupling these two types of uncertainty is necessary. In this work, we show that an alternative representation of epistemic uncertainty, based on possibility theory, maintains many of the convenient features of standard Bayesian inference while displaying specific behaviours and properties that closely match the ones of an intuitive notion of information. Our main contributions are: i) a general framework for jointly representing epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, ii) a Bernstein-von Mises theorem for the analogue of Bayes’ rule in possibility theory, iii) a version of the law of large numbers and of the central limit theorem for the associated variables, and iv) an analysis of the properties of the possibilistic maximum a posteriori. These results highlight that a dedicated and principled representation of epistemic uncertainty, that is compatible with standard Bayesian inference and preserves many of its strengths, is attainable.

Cite this Paper

BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v258-hieu25a, title = {Decoupling epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties with possibility theory}, author = {Hieu, Nong Minh and Houssineau, Jeremie and Chada, Neil K. and Delande, Emmanuel}, booktitle = {Proceedings of The 28th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics}, pages = {2899--2907}, year = {2025}, editor = {Li, Yingzhen and Mandt, Stephan and Agrawal, Shipra and Khan, Emtiyaz}, volume = {258}, series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research}, month = {03--05 May}, publisher = {PMLR}, pdf = {https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mlresearch/v258/main/assets/hieu25a/hieu25a.pdf}, url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v258/hieu25a.html}, abstract = {The special role of epistemic uncertainty in Machine Learning is now well recognised, and an increasing amount of research is focused on methods for dealing specifically with such a lack of knowledge. Yet, most often, a probabilistic representation is considered for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, hence creating challenges in applications where decoupling these two types of uncertainty is necessary. In this work, we show that an alternative representation of epistemic uncertainty, based on possibility theory, maintains many of the convenient features of standard Bayesian inference while displaying specific behaviours and properties that closely match the ones of an intuitive notion of information. Our main contributions are: i) a general framework for jointly representing epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, ii) a Bernstein-von Mises theorem for the analogue of Bayes’ rule in possibility theory, iii) a version of the law of large numbers and of the central limit theorem for the associated variables, and iv) an analysis of the properties of the possibilistic maximum a posteriori. These results highlight that a dedicated and principled representation of epistemic uncertainty, that is compatible with standard Bayesian inference and preserves many of its strengths, is attainable.} }
Endnote
%0 Conference Paper %T Decoupling epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties with possibility theory %A Nong Minh Hieu %A Jeremie Houssineau %A Neil K. Chada %A Emmanuel Delande %B Proceedings of The 28th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics %C Proceedings of Machine Learning Research %D 2025 %E Yingzhen Li %E Stephan Mandt %E Shipra Agrawal %E Emtiyaz Khan %F pmlr-v258-hieu25a %I PMLR %P 2899--2907 %U https://proceedings.mlr.press/v258/hieu25a.html %V 258 %X The special role of epistemic uncertainty in Machine Learning is now well recognised, and an increasing amount of research is focused on methods for dealing specifically with such a lack of knowledge. Yet, most often, a probabilistic representation is considered for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, hence creating challenges in applications where decoupling these two types of uncertainty is necessary. In this work, we show that an alternative representation of epistemic uncertainty, based on possibility theory, maintains many of the convenient features of standard Bayesian inference while displaying specific behaviours and properties that closely match the ones of an intuitive notion of information. Our main contributions are: i) a general framework for jointly representing epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, ii) a Bernstein-von Mises theorem for the analogue of Bayes’ rule in possibility theory, iii) a version of the law of large numbers and of the central limit theorem for the associated variables, and iv) an analysis of the properties of the possibilistic maximum a posteriori. These results highlight that a dedicated and principled representation of epistemic uncertainty, that is compatible with standard Bayesian inference and preserves many of its strengths, is attainable.
APA
Hieu, N.M., Houssineau, J., Chada, N.K. & Delande, E.. (2025). Decoupling epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties with possibility theory. Proceedings of The 28th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, in Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 258:2899-2907 Available from https://proceedings.mlr.press/v258/hieu25a.html.

Related Material