Exponential Estimates for Contagion in Financial Networks

Dimitrios Ioannides; Stavros Ioannidis

Exponential Estimates for Contagion in Financial Networks

Dimitrios Ioannides, Stavros Ioannidis

Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:762-764, 2025.

Abstract

In financial systems contagion occurs when the default of institutions affected by a random shock triggers a domino effect, leading to defaults of other institutions within a given set. We provide a sufficient and necessary condition for weak contagion using exponential estimates for contagion and default probabilities resulting from Sub-Gaussian shocks.

Cite this Paper

BibTeX

@InProceedings{pmlr-v266-ioannides25a,
  title = 	 {Exponential Estimates for Contagion in Financial Networks},
  author =       {Ioannides, Dimitrios and Ioannidis, Stavros},
  booktitle = 	 {Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications},
  pages = 	 {762--764},
  year = 	 {2025},
  editor = 	 {Nguyen, Khuong An and Luo, Zhiyuan and Papadopoulos, Harris and Löfström, Tuwe and Carlsson, Lars and Boström, Henrik},
  volume = 	 {266},
  series = 	 {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research},
  month = 	 {10--12 Sep},
  publisher =    {PMLR},
  pdf = 	 {https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mlresearch/v266/main/assets/ioannides25a/ioannides25a.pdf},
  url = 	 {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v266/ioannides25a.html},
  abstract = 	 {In financial systems contagion occurs when the default of institutions affected by a random shock triggers a domino effect, leading to defaults of other institutions within a given set. We provide a sufficient and necessary condition for weak contagion using exponential estimates for contagion and default probabilities resulting from Sub-Gaussian shocks.}
}

Endnote

%0 Conference Paper
%T Exponential Estimates for Contagion in Financial Networks
%A Dimitrios Ioannides
%A Stavros Ioannidis
%B Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications
%C Proceedings of Machine Learning Research
%D 2025
%E Khuong An Nguyen
%E Zhiyuan Luo
%E Harris Papadopoulos
%E Tuwe Löfström
%E Lars Carlsson
%E Henrik Boström	
%F pmlr-v266-ioannides25a
%I PMLR
%P 762--764
%U https://proceedings.mlr.press/v266/ioannides25a.html
%V 266
%X In financial systems contagion occurs when the default of institutions affected by a random shock triggers a domino effect, leading to defaults of other institutions within a given set. We provide a sufficient and necessary condition for weak contagion using exponential estimates for contagion and default probabilities resulting from Sub-Gaussian shocks.

APA

Ioannides, D. & Ioannidis, S.. (2025). Exponential Estimates for Contagion in Financial Networks. Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, in Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 266:762-764 Available from https://proceedings.mlr.press/v266/ioannides25a.html.

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