Spurious Correlations in High Dimensional Regression: The Roles of Regularization, Simplicity Bias and Over-Parameterization

Simone Bombari, Marco Mondelli
Proceedings of the 42nd International Conference on Machine Learning, PMLR 267:4839-4873, 2025.

Abstract

Learning models have been shown to rely on spurious correlations between non-predictive features and the associated labels in the training data, with negative implications on robustness, bias and fairness. In this work, we provide a statistical characterization of this phenomenon for high-dimensional regression, when the data contains a predictive core feature $x$ and a spurious feature $y$. Specifically, we quantify the amount of spurious correlations $\mathcal C$ learned via linear regression, in terms of the data covariance and the strength $\lambda$ of the ridge regularization. As a consequence, we first capture the simplicity of $y$ through the spectrum of its covariance, and its correlation with $x$ through the Schur complement of the full data covariance. Next, we prove a trade-off between $\mathcal C$ and the in-distribution test loss $\mathcal L$, by showing that the value of $\lambda$ that minimizes $\mathcal L$ lies in an interval where $\mathcal C$ is increasing. Finally, we investigate the effects of over-parameterization via the random features model, by showing its equivalence to regularized linear regression. Our theoretical results are supported by numerical experiments on Gaussian, Color-MNIST, and CIFAR-10 datasets.

Cite this Paper

BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v267-bombari25a, title = {Spurious Correlations in High Dimensional Regression: The Roles of Regularization, Simplicity Bias and Over-Parameterization}, author = {Bombari, Simone and Mondelli, Marco}, booktitle = {Proceedings of the 42nd International Conference on Machine Learning}, pages = {4839--4873}, year = {2025}, editor = {Singh, Aarti and Fazel, Maryam and Hsu, Daniel and Lacoste-Julien, Simon and Berkenkamp, Felix and Maharaj, Tegan and Wagstaff, Kiri and Zhu, Jerry}, volume = {267}, series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research}, month = {13--19 Jul}, publisher = {PMLR}, pdf = {https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mlresearch/v267/main/assets/bombari25a/bombari25a.pdf}, url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v267/bombari25a.html}, abstract = {Learning models have been shown to rely on spurious correlations between non-predictive features and the associated labels in the training data, with negative implications on robustness, bias and fairness. In this work, we provide a statistical characterization of this phenomenon for high-dimensional regression, when the data contains a predictive core feature $x$ and a spurious feature $y$. Specifically, we quantify the amount of spurious correlations $\mathcal C$ learned via linear regression, in terms of the data covariance and the strength $\lambda$ of the ridge regularization. As a consequence, we first capture the simplicity of $y$ through the spectrum of its covariance, and its correlation with $x$ through the Schur complement of the full data covariance. Next, we prove a trade-off between $\mathcal C$ and the in-distribution test loss $\mathcal L$, by showing that the value of $\lambda$ that minimizes $\mathcal L$ lies in an interval where $\mathcal C$ is increasing. Finally, we investigate the effects of over-parameterization via the random features model, by showing its equivalence to regularized linear regression. Our theoretical results are supported by numerical experiments on Gaussian, Color-MNIST, and CIFAR-10 datasets.} }
Endnote
%0 Conference Paper %T Spurious Correlations in High Dimensional Regression: The Roles of Regularization, Simplicity Bias and Over-Parameterization %A Simone Bombari %A Marco Mondelli %B Proceedings of the 42nd International Conference on Machine Learning %C Proceedings of Machine Learning Research %D 2025 %E Aarti Singh %E Maryam Fazel %E Daniel Hsu %E Simon Lacoste-Julien %E Felix Berkenkamp %E Tegan Maharaj %E Kiri Wagstaff %E Jerry Zhu %F pmlr-v267-bombari25a %I PMLR %P 4839--4873 %U https://proceedings.mlr.press/v267/bombari25a.html %V 267 %X Learning models have been shown to rely on spurious correlations between non-predictive features and the associated labels in the training data, with negative implications on robustness, bias and fairness. In this work, we provide a statistical characterization of this phenomenon for high-dimensional regression, when the data contains a predictive core feature $x$ and a spurious feature $y$. Specifically, we quantify the amount of spurious correlations $\mathcal C$ learned via linear regression, in terms of the data covariance and the strength $\lambda$ of the ridge regularization. As a consequence, we first capture the simplicity of $y$ through the spectrum of its covariance, and its correlation with $x$ through the Schur complement of the full data covariance. Next, we prove a trade-off between $\mathcal C$ and the in-distribution test loss $\mathcal L$, by showing that the value of $\lambda$ that minimizes $\mathcal L$ lies in an interval where $\mathcal C$ is increasing. Finally, we investigate the effects of over-parameterization via the random features model, by showing its equivalence to regularized linear regression. Our theoretical results are supported by numerical experiments on Gaussian, Color-MNIST, and CIFAR-10 datasets.
APA
Bombari, S. & Mondelli, M.. (2025). Spurious Correlations in High Dimensional Regression: The Roles of Regularization, Simplicity Bias and Over-Parameterization. Proceedings of the 42nd International Conference on Machine Learning, in Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 267:4839-4873 Available from https://proceedings.mlr.press/v267/bombari25a.html.

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