Model Uncertainty Quantification by Conformal Prediction in Continual Learning

Rui Gao, Weiwei Liu
Proceedings of the 42nd International Conference on Machine Learning, PMLR 267:18453-18469, 2025.

Abstract

Continual learning has attracted increasing research attention in recent years due to its promising experimental results in real-world applications. In this paper, we study the issue of calibration in continual learning which reliably quantifies the uncertainty of model predictions. Conformal prediction (CP) provides a general framework for model calibration, which outputs prediction intervals or sets with a theoretical high coverage guarantee as long as the samples are exchangeable. However, the tasks in continual learning are learned in sequence, which violates the principle that data should be exchangeable. Meanwhile, the model learns the current task with limited or no access to data from previous tasks, which is not conducive to constructing the calibration set. To address these issues, we propose a CP-based method for model uncertainty quantification in continual learning (CPCL), which also reveals the connection between prediction interval length and forgetting. We analyze the oracle prediction interval in continual learning and theoretically prove the asymptotic coverage guarantee of CPCL. Finally, extensive experiments on simulated and real data empirically verify the validity of our proposed method.

Cite this Paper

BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v267-gao25i, title = {Model Uncertainty Quantification by Conformal Prediction in Continual Learning}, author = {Gao, Rui and Liu, Weiwei}, booktitle = {Proceedings of the 42nd International Conference on Machine Learning}, pages = {18453--18469}, year = {2025}, editor = {Singh, Aarti and Fazel, Maryam and Hsu, Daniel and Lacoste-Julien, Simon and Berkenkamp, Felix and Maharaj, Tegan and Wagstaff, Kiri and Zhu, Jerry}, volume = {267}, series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research}, month = {13--19 Jul}, publisher = {PMLR}, pdf = {https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mlresearch/v267/main/assets/gao25i/gao25i.pdf}, url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v267/gao25i.html}, abstract = {Continual learning has attracted increasing research attention in recent years due to its promising experimental results in real-world applications. In this paper, we study the issue of calibration in continual learning which reliably quantifies the uncertainty of model predictions. Conformal prediction (CP) provides a general framework for model calibration, which outputs prediction intervals or sets with a theoretical high coverage guarantee as long as the samples are exchangeable. However, the tasks in continual learning are learned in sequence, which violates the principle that data should be exchangeable. Meanwhile, the model learns the current task with limited or no access to data from previous tasks, which is not conducive to constructing the calibration set. To address these issues, we propose a CP-based method for model uncertainty quantification in continual learning (CPCL), which also reveals the connection between prediction interval length and forgetting. We analyze the oracle prediction interval in continual learning and theoretically prove the asymptotic coverage guarantee of CPCL. Finally, extensive experiments on simulated and real data empirically verify the validity of our proposed method.} }
Endnote
%0 Conference Paper %T Model Uncertainty Quantification by Conformal Prediction in Continual Learning %A Rui Gao %A Weiwei Liu %B Proceedings of the 42nd International Conference on Machine Learning %C Proceedings of Machine Learning Research %D 2025 %E Aarti Singh %E Maryam Fazel %E Daniel Hsu %E Simon Lacoste-Julien %E Felix Berkenkamp %E Tegan Maharaj %E Kiri Wagstaff %E Jerry Zhu %F pmlr-v267-gao25i %I PMLR %P 18453--18469 %U https://proceedings.mlr.press/v267/gao25i.html %V 267 %X Continual learning has attracted increasing research attention in recent years due to its promising experimental results in real-world applications. In this paper, we study the issue of calibration in continual learning which reliably quantifies the uncertainty of model predictions. Conformal prediction (CP) provides a general framework for model calibration, which outputs prediction intervals or sets with a theoretical high coverage guarantee as long as the samples are exchangeable. However, the tasks in continual learning are learned in sequence, which violates the principle that data should be exchangeable. Meanwhile, the model learns the current task with limited or no access to data from previous tasks, which is not conducive to constructing the calibration set. To address these issues, we propose a CP-based method for model uncertainty quantification in continual learning (CPCL), which also reveals the connection between prediction interval length and forgetting. We analyze the oracle prediction interval in continual learning and theoretically prove the asymptotic coverage guarantee of CPCL. Finally, extensive experiments on simulated and real data empirically verify the validity of our proposed method.
APA
Gao, R. & Liu, W.. (2025). Model Uncertainty Quantification by Conformal Prediction in Continual Learning. Proceedings of the 42nd International Conference on Machine Learning, in Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 267:18453-18469 Available from https://proceedings.mlr.press/v267/gao25i.html.

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