TCP-Diffusion: A Multi-modal Diffusion Model for Global Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Forecasting with Change Awareness

Cheng Huang, Pan Mu, Cong Bai, Peter Ag Watson
Proceedings of the 42nd International Conference on Machine Learning, PMLR 267:25634-25653, 2025.

Abstract

Deep learning methods have made significant progress in regular rainfall forecasting, yet the more hazardous tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall has not received the same attention. While regular rainfall models can offer valuable insights for designing TC rainfall forecasting models, most existing methods suffer from cumulative errors and lack physical consistency. Additionally, these methods overlook the importance of meteorological factors in TC rainfall and their integration with the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. To address these issues, we propose Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Diffusion (TCP-Diffusion), a multi-modal model for forecasting of TC precipitation given an existing TC in any location globally. It forecasts rainfall around the TC center for the next 12 hours at 3 hourly resolution based on past rainfall observations and multi-modal environmental variables. Adjacent residual prediction (ARP) changes the training target from the absolute rainfall value to the rainfall trend and gives our model the capability of rainfall change awareness, reducing cumulative errors and ensuring physical consistency. Considering the influence of TC-related meteorological factors and the useful information from NWP model forecasts, we propose a multi-model framework with specialized encoders to extract richer information from environmental variables and results provided by NWP models. The results of extensive experiments show that our method outperforms other DL methods and the NWP method from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

Cite this Paper

BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v267-huang25y, title = {{TCP}-Diffusion: A Multi-modal Diffusion Model for Global Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Forecasting with Change Awareness}, author = {Huang, Cheng and Mu, Pan and Bai, Cong and Watson, Peter Ag}, booktitle = {Proceedings of the 42nd International Conference on Machine Learning}, pages = {25634--25653}, year = {2025}, editor = {Singh, Aarti and Fazel, Maryam and Hsu, Daniel and Lacoste-Julien, Simon and Berkenkamp, Felix and Maharaj, Tegan and Wagstaff, Kiri and Zhu, Jerry}, volume = {267}, series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research}, month = {13--19 Jul}, publisher = {PMLR}, pdf = {https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mlresearch/v267/main/assets/huang25y/huang25y.pdf}, url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v267/huang25y.html}, abstract = {Deep learning methods have made significant progress in regular rainfall forecasting, yet the more hazardous tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall has not received the same attention. While regular rainfall models can offer valuable insights for designing TC rainfall forecasting models, most existing methods suffer from cumulative errors and lack physical consistency. Additionally, these methods overlook the importance of meteorological factors in TC rainfall and their integration with the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. To address these issues, we propose Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Diffusion (TCP-Diffusion), a multi-modal model for forecasting of TC precipitation given an existing TC in any location globally. It forecasts rainfall around the TC center for the next 12 hours at 3 hourly resolution based on past rainfall observations and multi-modal environmental variables. Adjacent residual prediction (ARP) changes the training target from the absolute rainfall value to the rainfall trend and gives our model the capability of rainfall change awareness, reducing cumulative errors and ensuring physical consistency. Considering the influence of TC-related meteorological factors and the useful information from NWP model forecasts, we propose a multi-model framework with specialized encoders to extract richer information from environmental variables and results provided by NWP models. The results of extensive experiments show that our method outperforms other DL methods and the NWP method from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).} }
Endnote
%0 Conference Paper %T TCP-Diffusion: A Multi-modal Diffusion Model for Global Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Forecasting with Change Awareness %A Cheng Huang %A Pan Mu %A Cong Bai %A Peter Ag Watson %B Proceedings of the 42nd International Conference on Machine Learning %C Proceedings of Machine Learning Research %D 2025 %E Aarti Singh %E Maryam Fazel %E Daniel Hsu %E Simon Lacoste-Julien %E Felix Berkenkamp %E Tegan Maharaj %E Kiri Wagstaff %E Jerry Zhu %F pmlr-v267-huang25y %I PMLR %P 25634--25653 %U https://proceedings.mlr.press/v267/huang25y.html %V 267 %X Deep learning methods have made significant progress in regular rainfall forecasting, yet the more hazardous tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall has not received the same attention. While regular rainfall models can offer valuable insights for designing TC rainfall forecasting models, most existing methods suffer from cumulative errors and lack physical consistency. Additionally, these methods overlook the importance of meteorological factors in TC rainfall and their integration with the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. To address these issues, we propose Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Diffusion (TCP-Diffusion), a multi-modal model for forecasting of TC precipitation given an existing TC in any location globally. It forecasts rainfall around the TC center for the next 12 hours at 3 hourly resolution based on past rainfall observations and multi-modal environmental variables. Adjacent residual prediction (ARP) changes the training target from the absolute rainfall value to the rainfall trend and gives our model the capability of rainfall change awareness, reducing cumulative errors and ensuring physical consistency. Considering the influence of TC-related meteorological factors and the useful information from NWP model forecasts, we propose a multi-model framework with specialized encoders to extract richer information from environmental variables and results provided by NWP models. The results of extensive experiments show that our method outperforms other DL methods and the NWP method from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
APA
Huang, C., Mu, P., Bai, C. & Watson, P.A.. (2025). TCP-Diffusion: A Multi-modal Diffusion Model for Global Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Forecasting with Change Awareness. Proceedings of the 42nd International Conference on Machine Learning, in Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 267:25634-25653 Available from https://proceedings.mlr.press/v267/huang25y.html.

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