Improved Online Confidence Bounds for Multinomial Logistic Bandits

Joongkyu Lee, Min-Hwan Oh
Proceedings of the 42nd International Conference on Machine Learning, PMLR 267:33576-33615, 2025.

Abstract

In this paper, we propose an improved online confidence bound for multinomial logistic (MNL) models and apply this result to MNL bandits, achieving variance-dependent optimal regret. Recently, Lee & Oh (2024) established an online confidence bound for MNL models and achieved nearly minimax-optimal regret in MNL bandits. However, their results still depend on the norm-boundedness of the unknown parameter $B$ and the maximum size of possible outcomes $K$. To address this, we first derive an online confidence bound of $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{d \log t} + B \sqrt{d} )$, which is a significant improvement over the previous bound of $\mathcal{O} (B \sqrt{d} \log t \log K )$ (Lee & Oh, 2024). This is mainly achieved by establishing tighter self-concordant properties of the MNL loss and applying Ville’s inequality to bound the estimation error. Using this new online confidence bound, we propose a constant-time algorithm, OFU-MNL++, which achieves a variance-dependent regret bound of $\mathcal{O} \Big( d \log T \sqrt{ \sum_{t=1}^T \sigma_t^2 } \Big) $ for sufficiently large $T$, where $\sigma_t^2$ denotes the variance of the rewards at round $t$, $d$ is the dimension of the contexts, and $T$ is the total number of rounds. Furthermore, we introduce a Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE)-based algorithm, OFU-M$^2$NL, which achieves an anytime $\operatorname{poly}(B)$-free regret of $\mathcal{O} \Big( d \log (BT) \sqrt{ \sum_{t=1}^T \sigma_t^2 } \Big) $.

Cite this Paper

BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v267-lee25aa, title = {Improved Online Confidence Bounds for Multinomial Logistic Bandits}, author = {Lee, Joongkyu and Oh, Min-Hwan}, booktitle = {Proceedings of the 42nd International Conference on Machine Learning}, pages = {33576--33615}, year = {2025}, editor = {Singh, Aarti and Fazel, Maryam and Hsu, Daniel and Lacoste-Julien, Simon and Berkenkamp, Felix and Maharaj, Tegan and Wagstaff, Kiri and Zhu, Jerry}, volume = {267}, series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research}, month = {13--19 Jul}, publisher = {PMLR}, pdf = {https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mlresearch/v267/main/assets/lee25aa/lee25aa.pdf}, url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v267/lee25aa.html}, abstract = {In this paper, we propose an improved online confidence bound for multinomial logistic (MNL) models and apply this result to MNL bandits, achieving variance-dependent optimal regret. Recently, Lee & Oh (2024) established an online confidence bound for MNL models and achieved nearly minimax-optimal regret in MNL bandits. However, their results still depend on the norm-boundedness of the unknown parameter $B$ and the maximum size of possible outcomes $K$. To address this, we first derive an online confidence bound of $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{d \log t} + B \sqrt{d} )$, which is a significant improvement over the previous bound of $\mathcal{O} (B \sqrt{d} \log t \log K )$ (Lee & Oh, 2024). This is mainly achieved by establishing tighter self-concordant properties of the MNL loss and applying Ville’s inequality to bound the estimation error. Using this new online confidence bound, we propose a constant-time algorithm, OFU-MNL++, which achieves a variance-dependent regret bound of $\mathcal{O} \Big( d \log T \sqrt{ \sum_{t=1}^T \sigma_t^2 } \Big) $ for sufficiently large $T$, where $\sigma_t^2$ denotes the variance of the rewards at round $t$, $d$ is the dimension of the contexts, and $T$ is the total number of rounds. Furthermore, we introduce a Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE)-based algorithm, OFU-M$^2$NL, which achieves an anytime $\operatorname{poly}(B)$-free regret of $\mathcal{O} \Big( d \log (BT) \sqrt{ \sum_{t=1}^T \sigma_t^2 } \Big) $.} }
Endnote
%0 Conference Paper %T Improved Online Confidence Bounds for Multinomial Logistic Bandits %A Joongkyu Lee %A Min-Hwan Oh %B Proceedings of the 42nd International Conference on Machine Learning %C Proceedings of Machine Learning Research %D 2025 %E Aarti Singh %E Maryam Fazel %E Daniel Hsu %E Simon Lacoste-Julien %E Felix Berkenkamp %E Tegan Maharaj %E Kiri Wagstaff %E Jerry Zhu %F pmlr-v267-lee25aa %I PMLR %P 33576--33615 %U https://proceedings.mlr.press/v267/lee25aa.html %V 267 %X In this paper, we propose an improved online confidence bound for multinomial logistic (MNL) models and apply this result to MNL bandits, achieving variance-dependent optimal regret. Recently, Lee & Oh (2024) established an online confidence bound for MNL models and achieved nearly minimax-optimal regret in MNL bandits. However, their results still depend on the norm-boundedness of the unknown parameter $B$ and the maximum size of possible outcomes $K$. To address this, we first derive an online confidence bound of $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{d \log t} + B \sqrt{d} )$, which is a significant improvement over the previous bound of $\mathcal{O} (B \sqrt{d} \log t \log K )$ (Lee & Oh, 2024). This is mainly achieved by establishing tighter self-concordant properties of the MNL loss and applying Ville’s inequality to bound the estimation error. Using this new online confidence bound, we propose a constant-time algorithm, OFU-MNL++, which achieves a variance-dependent regret bound of $\mathcal{O} \Big( d \log T \sqrt{ \sum_{t=1}^T \sigma_t^2 } \Big) $ for sufficiently large $T$, where $\sigma_t^2$ denotes the variance of the rewards at round $t$, $d$ is the dimension of the contexts, and $T$ is the total number of rounds. Furthermore, we introduce a Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE)-based algorithm, OFU-M$^2$NL, which achieves an anytime $\operatorname{poly}(B)$-free regret of $\mathcal{O} \Big( d \log (BT) \sqrt{ \sum_{t=1}^T \sigma_t^2 } \Big) $.
APA
Lee, J. & Oh, M.. (2025). Improved Online Confidence Bounds for Multinomial Logistic Bandits. Proceedings of the 42nd International Conference on Machine Learning, in Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 267:33576-33615 Available from https://proceedings.mlr.press/v267/lee25aa.html.

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