CoDy: Counterfactual Explainers for Dynamic Graphs

Zhan Qu, Daniel Gomm, Michael Färber
Proceedings of the 42nd International Conference on Machine Learning, PMLR 267:50762-50785, 2025.

Abstract

Temporal Graph Neural Networks (TGNNs) are widely used to model dynamic systems where relationships and features evolve over time. Although TGNNs demonstrate strong predictive capabilities in these domains, their complex architectures pose significant challenges for explainability. Counterfactual explanation methods provide a promising solution by illustrating how modifications to input graphs can influence model predictions. To address this challenge, we present CoDy—Counterfactual Explainer for Dynamic Graphs—a model-agnostic, instance-level explanation approach that identifies counterfactual subgraphs to interpret TGNN predictions. CoDy employs a search algorithm that combines Monte Carlo Tree Search with heuristic selection policies, efficiently exploring a vast search space of potential explanatory subgraphs by leveraging spatial, temporal, and local event impact information. Extensive experiments against state-of-the-art factual and counterfactual baselines demonstrate CoDy’s effectiveness, with improvements of 16% in AUFSC+ over the strongest baseline. Our code is available at: https://github.com/daniel-gomm/CoDy

Cite this Paper

BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v267-qu25b, title = {{C}o{D}y: Counterfactual Explainers for Dynamic Graphs}, author = {Qu, Zhan and Gomm, Daniel and F\"{a}rber, Michael}, booktitle = {Proceedings of the 42nd International Conference on Machine Learning}, pages = {50762--50785}, year = {2025}, editor = {Singh, Aarti and Fazel, Maryam and Hsu, Daniel and Lacoste-Julien, Simon and Berkenkamp, Felix and Maharaj, Tegan and Wagstaff, Kiri and Zhu, Jerry}, volume = {267}, series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research}, month = {13--19 Jul}, publisher = {PMLR}, pdf = {https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mlresearch/v267/main/assets/qu25b/qu25b.pdf}, url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v267/qu25b.html}, abstract = {Temporal Graph Neural Networks (TGNNs) are widely used to model dynamic systems where relationships and features evolve over time. Although TGNNs demonstrate strong predictive capabilities in these domains, their complex architectures pose significant challenges for explainability. Counterfactual explanation methods provide a promising solution by illustrating how modifications to input graphs can influence model predictions. To address this challenge, we present CoDy—Counterfactual Explainer for Dynamic Graphs—a model-agnostic, instance-level explanation approach that identifies counterfactual subgraphs to interpret TGNN predictions. CoDy employs a search algorithm that combines Monte Carlo Tree Search with heuristic selection policies, efficiently exploring a vast search space of potential explanatory subgraphs by leveraging spatial, temporal, and local event impact information. Extensive experiments against state-of-the-art factual and counterfactual baselines demonstrate CoDy’s effectiveness, with improvements of 16% in AUFSC+ over the strongest baseline. Our code is available at: https://github.com/daniel-gomm/CoDy} }
Endnote
%0 Conference Paper %T CoDy: Counterfactual Explainers for Dynamic Graphs %A Zhan Qu %A Daniel Gomm %A Michael Färber %B Proceedings of the 42nd International Conference on Machine Learning %C Proceedings of Machine Learning Research %D 2025 %E Aarti Singh %E Maryam Fazel %E Daniel Hsu %E Simon Lacoste-Julien %E Felix Berkenkamp %E Tegan Maharaj %E Kiri Wagstaff %E Jerry Zhu %F pmlr-v267-qu25b %I PMLR %P 50762--50785 %U https://proceedings.mlr.press/v267/qu25b.html %V 267 %X Temporal Graph Neural Networks (TGNNs) are widely used to model dynamic systems where relationships and features evolve over time. Although TGNNs demonstrate strong predictive capabilities in these domains, their complex architectures pose significant challenges for explainability. Counterfactual explanation methods provide a promising solution by illustrating how modifications to input graphs can influence model predictions. To address this challenge, we present CoDy—Counterfactual Explainer for Dynamic Graphs—a model-agnostic, instance-level explanation approach that identifies counterfactual subgraphs to interpret TGNN predictions. CoDy employs a search algorithm that combines Monte Carlo Tree Search with heuristic selection policies, efficiently exploring a vast search space of potential explanatory subgraphs by leveraging spatial, temporal, and local event impact information. Extensive experiments against state-of-the-art factual and counterfactual baselines demonstrate CoDy’s effectiveness, with improvements of 16% in AUFSC+ over the strongest baseline. Our code is available at: https://github.com/daniel-gomm/CoDy
APA
Qu, Z., Gomm, D. & Färber, M.. (2025). CoDy: Counterfactual Explainers for Dynamic Graphs. Proceedings of the 42nd International Conference on Machine Learning, in Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 267:50762-50785 Available from https://proceedings.mlr.press/v267/qu25b.html.

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