Learning In-context $n$-grams with Transformers: Sub-$n$-grams Are Near-Stationary Points

Motivated by empirical observations of prolonged plateaus and stage-wise progression during training, we investigate the loss landscape of transformer models trained on in-context next-token prediction tasks. In particular, we focus on learning in-context $n$-gram language models under cross-entropy loss, and establish a sufficient condition for parameter configurations to be stationary points. We then construct a set of parameter configurations for a simplified transformer model that represent $k$-gram estimators (for $k \leq n$), and show that the gradient of the population loss at these solutions vanishes in the limit of infinite sequence length and parameter norm. This reveals a key property of the loss landscape: sub-$n$-grams are near-stationary points of the population cross-entropy loss, offering theoretical insight into widely observed phenomena such as stage-wise learning dynamics and emergent phase transitions. These insights are further supported by numerical experiments that illustrate the learning dynamics of $n$-grams, characterized by discrete transitions between near-stationary solutions.