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A Short Information-Theoretic Analysis of Linear Auto-Regressive Learning
Proceedings of the 7th Annual Learning for Dynamics \& Control Conference, PMLR 283:26-30, 2025.
Abstract
In this note, we give a short information-theoretic proof of the consistency of the Gaussian maximum likelihood estimator in linear auto-regressive models. Our proof yields nearly optimal non-asymptotic rates for parameter recovery and works without any invocation of stability in the case of finite hypothesis classes.