SurvDiff: A Diffusion Model for Generating Synthetic Data in Survival Analysis

Marie Brockschmidt, Maresa Schröder, Stefan Feuerriegel
Proceedings of the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning, PMLR 306:9899-9932, 2026.

Abstract

Survival analysis is a cornerstone of clinical research by modeling time-to-event outcomes such as metastasis, disease relapse, or patient death. Unlike standard tabular data, survival data often come with incomplete event information due to dropout, or loss to follow-up. This poses unique challenges for synthetic data generation, where it is crucial for clinical research to faithfully reproduce both the event-time distribution and the censoring mechanism. In this paper, we propose SurvDiff, an end-to-end diffusion model specifically designed for generating synthetic data in survival analysis. SurvDiff is tailored to capture the data-generating mechanism by jointly generating mixed-type covariates, event times, and right-censoring, guided by a survival-tailored loss function. The loss encodes the time-to-event structure and directly optimizes for downstream survival tasks, which ensures that SurvDiff (i) reproduces realistic event-time distributions and (ii) preserves the censoring mechanism. Across multiple datasets, we show that SurvDiff outperforms state-of-the-art generative baselines in both distributional fidelity and survival model evaluation metrics across multiple medical datasets. To the best of our knowledge, SurvDiff is the first end-to-end diffusion model explicitly designed for generating synthetic survival data.

Cite this Paper

BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v306-brockschmidt26a, title = {{S}urv{D}iff: A Diffusion Model for Generating Synthetic Data in Survival Analysis}, author = {Brockschmidt, Marie and Schr\"{o}der, Maresa and Feuerriegel, Stefan}, booktitle = {Proceedings of the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning}, pages = {9899--9932}, year = {2026}, editor = {Zhang, Tong and Dudik, Miroslav and Jaggi, Martin and Agarwal, Alekh and Li, Sharon and Schuurmans, Dale and Zhu, Jerry and Berkenkamp, Felix and Dong, Hanze and Bietti, Alberto}, volume = {306}, series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research}, month = {06--11 Jul}, publisher = {PMLR}, pdf = {https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mlresearch/v306/main/assets/brockschmidt26a/brockschmidt26a.pdf}, url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v306/brockschmidt26a.html}, abstract = {Survival analysis is a cornerstone of clinical research by modeling time-to-event outcomes such as metastasis, disease relapse, or patient death. Unlike standard tabular data, survival data often come with incomplete event information due to dropout, or loss to follow-up. This poses unique challenges for synthetic data generation, where it is crucial for clinical research to faithfully reproduce both the event-time distribution and the censoring mechanism. In this paper, we propose SurvDiff, an end-to-end diffusion model specifically designed for generating synthetic data in survival analysis. SurvDiff is tailored to capture the data-generating mechanism by jointly generating mixed-type covariates, event times, and right-censoring, guided by a survival-tailored loss function. The loss encodes the time-to-event structure and directly optimizes for downstream survival tasks, which ensures that SurvDiff (i) reproduces realistic event-time distributions and (ii) preserves the censoring mechanism. Across multiple datasets, we show that SurvDiff outperforms state-of-the-art generative baselines in both distributional fidelity and survival model evaluation metrics across multiple medical datasets. To the best of our knowledge, SurvDiff is the first end-to-end diffusion model explicitly designed for generating synthetic survival data.} }
Endnote
%0 Conference Paper %T SurvDiff: A Diffusion Model for Generating Synthetic Data in Survival Analysis %A Marie Brockschmidt %A Maresa Schröder %A Stefan Feuerriegel %B Proceedings of the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning %C Proceedings of Machine Learning Research %D 2026 %E Tong Zhang %E Miroslav Dudik %E Martin Jaggi %E Alekh Agarwal %E Sharon Li %E Dale Schuurmans %E Jerry Zhu %E Felix Berkenkamp %E Hanze Dong %E Alberto Bietti %F pmlr-v306-brockschmidt26a %I PMLR %P 9899--9932 %U https://proceedings.mlr.press/v306/brockschmidt26a.html %V 306 %X Survival analysis is a cornerstone of clinical research by modeling time-to-event outcomes such as metastasis, disease relapse, or patient death. Unlike standard tabular data, survival data often come with incomplete event information due to dropout, or loss to follow-up. This poses unique challenges for synthetic data generation, where it is crucial for clinical research to faithfully reproduce both the event-time distribution and the censoring mechanism. In this paper, we propose SurvDiff, an end-to-end diffusion model specifically designed for generating synthetic data in survival analysis. SurvDiff is tailored to capture the data-generating mechanism by jointly generating mixed-type covariates, event times, and right-censoring, guided by a survival-tailored loss function. The loss encodes the time-to-event structure and directly optimizes for downstream survival tasks, which ensures that SurvDiff (i) reproduces realistic event-time distributions and (ii) preserves the censoring mechanism. Across multiple datasets, we show that SurvDiff outperforms state-of-the-art generative baselines in both distributional fidelity and survival model evaluation metrics across multiple medical datasets. To the best of our knowledge, SurvDiff is the first end-to-end diffusion model explicitly designed for generating synthetic survival data.
APA
Brockschmidt, M., Schröder, M. & Feuerriegel, S.. (2026). SurvDiff: A Diffusion Model for Generating Synthetic Data in Survival Analysis. Proceedings of the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning, in Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 306:9899-9932 Available from https://proceedings.mlr.press/v306/brockschmidt26a.html.

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