Richer Bayesian Last Layers with Subsampled NTK Features

Sergio Calvo Ordoñez, Jonathan Plenk, Richard Bergna, Alvaro Cartea, Yarin Gal, José Miguel Hernández-Lobato, Kamil Ciosek
Proceedings of the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning, PMLR 306:10939-10961, 2026.

Abstract

Bayesian Last Layers (BLLs) provide a convenient and computationally efficient way to estimate uncertainty in neural networks. However, they underestimate epistemic uncertainty because they apply a Bayesian treatment only to the final layer, ignoring uncertainty induced by earlier layers. We propose a method that improves BLLs by leveraging a projection of Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) features onto the space spanned by the last-layer features. This enables posterior inference that accounts for variability of the full network while retaining the low computational cost of inference of a standard BLL. We show that our method yields posterior variances that are provably greater or equal to those of a standard BLL, correcting its tendency to underestimate epistemic uncertainty. To further reduce computational cost, we introduce a uniform subsampling scheme for estimating the projection matrix and for posterior inference. We derive approximation bounds for both types of subsampling. Empirical evaluations on UCI regression, contextual bandits, image classification, and out-of-distribution detection tasks in image and tabular datasets, demonstrate improved calibration and uncertainty estimates compared to standard BLLs and competitive baselines, while reducing computational cost.

Cite this Paper


BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v306-calvo-ordonez26a, title = {Richer {B}ayesian Last Layers with Subsampled {NTK} Features}, author = {Calvo Ordo\~{n}ez, Sergio and Plenk, Jonathan and Bergna, Richard and Cartea, Alvaro and Gal, Yarin and Hern\'{a}ndez-Lobato, Jos\'{e} Miguel and Ciosek, Kamil}, booktitle = {Proceedings of the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning}, pages = {10939--10961}, year = {2026}, editor = {Zhang, Tong and Dudik, Miroslav and Jaggi, Martin and Agarwal, Alekh and Li, Sharon and Schuurmans, Dale and Zhu, Jerry and Berkenkamp, Felix and Dong, Hanze and Bietti, Alberto}, volume = {306}, series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research}, month = {06--11 Jul}, publisher = {PMLR}, pdf = {https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mlresearch/v306/main/assets/calvo-ordonez26a/calvo-ordonez26a.pdf}, url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v306/calvo-ordonez26a.html}, abstract = {Bayesian Last Layers (BLLs) provide a convenient and computationally efficient way to estimate uncertainty in neural networks. However, they underestimate epistemic uncertainty because they apply a Bayesian treatment only to the final layer, ignoring uncertainty induced by earlier layers. We propose a method that improves BLLs by leveraging a projection of Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) features onto the space spanned by the last-layer features. This enables posterior inference that accounts for variability of the full network while retaining the low computational cost of inference of a standard BLL. We show that our method yields posterior variances that are provably greater or equal to those of a standard BLL, correcting its tendency to underestimate epistemic uncertainty. To further reduce computational cost, we introduce a uniform subsampling scheme for estimating the projection matrix and for posterior inference. We derive approximation bounds for both types of subsampling. Empirical evaluations on UCI regression, contextual bandits, image classification, and out-of-distribution detection tasks in image and tabular datasets, demonstrate improved calibration and uncertainty estimates compared to standard BLLs and competitive baselines, while reducing computational cost.} }
Endnote
%0 Conference Paper %T Richer Bayesian Last Layers with Subsampled NTK Features %A Sergio Calvo Ordoñez %A Jonathan Plenk %A Richard Bergna %A Alvaro Cartea %A Yarin Gal %A José Miguel Hernández-Lobato %A Kamil Ciosek %B Proceedings of the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning %C Proceedings of Machine Learning Research %D 2026 %E Tong Zhang %E Miroslav Dudik %E Martin Jaggi %E Alekh Agarwal %E Sharon Li %E Dale Schuurmans %E Jerry Zhu %E Felix Berkenkamp %E Hanze Dong %E Alberto Bietti %F pmlr-v306-calvo-ordonez26a %I PMLR %P 10939--10961 %U https://proceedings.mlr.press/v306/calvo-ordonez26a.html %V 306 %X Bayesian Last Layers (BLLs) provide a convenient and computationally efficient way to estimate uncertainty in neural networks. However, they underestimate epistemic uncertainty because they apply a Bayesian treatment only to the final layer, ignoring uncertainty induced by earlier layers. We propose a method that improves BLLs by leveraging a projection of Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) features onto the space spanned by the last-layer features. This enables posterior inference that accounts for variability of the full network while retaining the low computational cost of inference of a standard BLL. We show that our method yields posterior variances that are provably greater or equal to those of a standard BLL, correcting its tendency to underestimate epistemic uncertainty. To further reduce computational cost, we introduce a uniform subsampling scheme for estimating the projection matrix and for posterior inference. We derive approximation bounds for both types of subsampling. Empirical evaluations on UCI regression, contextual bandits, image classification, and out-of-distribution detection tasks in image and tabular datasets, demonstrate improved calibration and uncertainty estimates compared to standard BLLs and competitive baselines, while reducing computational cost.
APA
Calvo Ordoñez, S., Plenk, J., Bergna, R., Cartea, A., Gal, Y., Hernández-Lobato, J.M. & Ciosek, K.. (2026). Richer Bayesian Last Layers with Subsampled NTK Features. Proceedings of the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning, in Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 306:10939-10961 Available from https://proceedings.mlr.press/v306/calvo-ordonez26a.html.

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