Beyond Extrapolation: Knowledge Utilization Paradigm with Bidirectional Inspiration for Time Series Forecasting

Liu Chong, Yingjie Zhou, Hao Li, Pengyang Wang, Qingsong Wen, Ce Zhu
Proceedings of the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning, PMLR 306:20398-20416, 2026.

Abstract

Time-series forecasting is critical in various scenarios, such as energy, transportation, and public health. However, most existing forecasters rely primarily on one-way inference, i.e., mapping history to target, and overlook the structural information provided by a revised natural chain (“history (model input) – target (ground-truth output) – post-target continuation”). The post-target continuation records how trajectories evolve after the target, which can help stabilize forecasting, but it is not observable at inference time. In this work, we aim to obtain an approximate proxy of the post-target continuation for the current input, providing structural knowledge for bidirectional forecasting. This idea is instantiated as KUP-BI (Knowledge Utilization Paradigm with Bidirectional Inspiration), a new time-series modeling paradigm that distills continuation-style knowledge (as an approximate post-target continuation proxy) from a train-only historical library and integrates it into standard forecasting backbones. The input stream and the continuation-proxy stream are fused via a lightweight feature-level gating module. This design does not introduce information beyond what is already contained in the training trajectories; instead, it provides a structured inductive bias that helps backbones exploit typical continuation patterns rather than relying solely on parametric extrapolation. Experimental results on six public datasets show that KUP-BI consistently improves the forecasting performance of state-of-the-art models, with small additional overhead.

Cite this Paper


BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v306-chong26c, title = {Beyond Extrapolation: Knowledge Utilization Paradigm with Bidirectional Inspiration for Time Series Forecasting}, author = {Chong, Liu and Zhou, Yingjie and Li, Hao and Wang, Pengyang and Wen, Qingsong and Zhu, Ce}, booktitle = {Proceedings of the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning}, pages = {20398--20416}, year = {2026}, editor = {Zhang, Tong and Dudik, Miroslav and Jaggi, Martin and Agarwal, Alekh and Li, Sharon and Schuurmans, Dale and Zhu, Jerry and Berkenkamp, Felix and Dong, Hanze and Bietti, Alberto}, volume = {306}, series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research}, month = {06--11 Jul}, publisher = {PMLR}, pdf = {https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mlresearch/v306/main/assets/chong26c/chong26c.pdf}, url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v306/chong26c.html}, abstract = {Time-series forecasting is critical in various scenarios, such as energy, transportation, and public health. However, most existing forecasters rely primarily on one-way inference, i.e., mapping history to target, and overlook the structural information provided by a revised natural chain (“history (model input) – target (ground-truth output) – post-target continuation”). The post-target continuation records how trajectories evolve after the target, which can help stabilize forecasting, but it is not observable at inference time. In this work, we aim to obtain an approximate proxy of the post-target continuation for the current input, providing structural knowledge for bidirectional forecasting. This idea is instantiated as KUP-BI (Knowledge Utilization Paradigm with Bidirectional Inspiration), a new time-series modeling paradigm that distills continuation-style knowledge (as an approximate post-target continuation proxy) from a train-only historical library and integrates it into standard forecasting backbones. The input stream and the continuation-proxy stream are fused via a lightweight feature-level gating module. This design does not introduce information beyond what is already contained in the training trajectories; instead, it provides a structured inductive bias that helps backbones exploit typical continuation patterns rather than relying solely on parametric extrapolation. Experimental results on six public datasets show that KUP-BI consistently improves the forecasting performance of state-of-the-art models, with small additional overhead.} }
Endnote
%0 Conference Paper %T Beyond Extrapolation: Knowledge Utilization Paradigm with Bidirectional Inspiration for Time Series Forecasting %A Liu Chong %A Yingjie Zhou %A Hao Li %A Pengyang Wang %A Qingsong Wen %A Ce Zhu %B Proceedings of the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning %C Proceedings of Machine Learning Research %D 2026 %E Tong Zhang %E Miroslav Dudik %E Martin Jaggi %E Alekh Agarwal %E Sharon Li %E Dale Schuurmans %E Jerry Zhu %E Felix Berkenkamp %E Hanze Dong %E Alberto Bietti %F pmlr-v306-chong26c %I PMLR %P 20398--20416 %U https://proceedings.mlr.press/v306/chong26c.html %V 306 %X Time-series forecasting is critical in various scenarios, such as energy, transportation, and public health. However, most existing forecasters rely primarily on one-way inference, i.e., mapping history to target, and overlook the structural information provided by a revised natural chain (“history (model input) – target (ground-truth output) – post-target continuation”). The post-target continuation records how trajectories evolve after the target, which can help stabilize forecasting, but it is not observable at inference time. In this work, we aim to obtain an approximate proxy of the post-target continuation for the current input, providing structural knowledge for bidirectional forecasting. This idea is instantiated as KUP-BI (Knowledge Utilization Paradigm with Bidirectional Inspiration), a new time-series modeling paradigm that distills continuation-style knowledge (as an approximate post-target continuation proxy) from a train-only historical library and integrates it into standard forecasting backbones. The input stream and the continuation-proxy stream are fused via a lightweight feature-level gating module. This design does not introduce information beyond what is already contained in the training trajectories; instead, it provides a structured inductive bias that helps backbones exploit typical continuation patterns rather than relying solely on parametric extrapolation. Experimental results on six public datasets show that KUP-BI consistently improves the forecasting performance of state-of-the-art models, with small additional overhead.
APA
Chong, L., Zhou, Y., Li, H., Wang, P., Wen, Q. & Zhu, C.. (2026). Beyond Extrapolation: Knowledge Utilization Paradigm with Bidirectional Inspiration for Time Series Forecasting. Proceedings of the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning, in Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 306:20398-20416 Available from https://proceedings.mlr.press/v306/chong26c.html.

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