Innovation: An Almost Characterization of Hallucination

Nishant P. Das, Piyush Srivastava
Proceedings of the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning, PMLR 306:23016-23030, 2026.

Abstract

Hallucination is a central limitation of large language models (LLMs), and substantial effort has been devoted to understanding and mitigating it. Towards this, Kalai and Vempala (STOC 2024) introduced a probabilistic framework formalizing calibration and hallucination, and showed that, with high probability, calibrated LLMs hallucinate roughly at the rate of the "missing mass", a measure of how incomplete the training data is relative to its source. This raises two fundamental questions: (i) what property of a calibrated LLM makes hallucinations unavoidable? and (ii) can hallucinations be avoided by giving up calibration? We answer these questions by introducing a simpler property we call innovation that measures the tendency of a model to produce outputs outside the training data. We show that innovation is implied by the condition for hallucination identified by Kalai and Vempala, and, further, that it is an almost characterization of hallucination: hallucination implies innovation, and conversely, innovation implies hallucination with high probability. We also provide lower bounds on the hallucination rate based on the "innovation rate", and by relating innovation rate back to missing mass, we obtain new hallucination rate lower bounds based on missing mass that extend the results of Kalai and Vempala.

Cite this Paper

BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v306-das26c, title = {Innovation: An Almost Characterization of Hallucination}, author = {Das, Nishant P. and Srivastava, Piyush}, booktitle = {Proceedings of the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning}, pages = {23016--23030}, year = {2026}, editor = {Zhang, Tong and Dudik, Miroslav and Jaggi, Martin and Agarwal, Alekh and Li, Sharon and Schuurmans, Dale and Zhu, Jerry and Berkenkamp, Felix and Dong, Hanze and Bietti, Alberto}, volume = {306}, series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research}, month = {06--11 Jul}, publisher = {PMLR}, pdf = {https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mlresearch/v306/main/assets/das26c/das26c.pdf}, url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v306/das26c.html}, abstract = {Hallucination is a central limitation of large language models (LLMs), and substantial effort has been devoted to understanding and mitigating it. Towards this, Kalai and Vempala (STOC 2024) introduced a probabilistic framework formalizing calibration and hallucination, and showed that, with high probability, calibrated LLMs hallucinate roughly at the rate of the "missing mass", a measure of how incomplete the training data is relative to its source. This raises two fundamental questions: (i) what property of a calibrated LLM makes hallucinations unavoidable? and (ii) can hallucinations be avoided by giving up calibration? We answer these questions by introducing a simpler property we call innovation that measures the tendency of a model to produce outputs outside the training data. We show that innovation is implied by the condition for hallucination identified by Kalai and Vempala, and, further, that it is an almost characterization of hallucination: hallucination implies innovation, and conversely, innovation implies hallucination with high probability. We also provide lower bounds on the hallucination rate based on the "innovation rate", and by relating innovation rate back to missing mass, we obtain new hallucination rate lower bounds based on missing mass that extend the results of Kalai and Vempala.} }
Endnote
%0 Conference Paper %T Innovation: An Almost Characterization of Hallucination %A Nishant P. Das %A Piyush Srivastava %B Proceedings of the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning %C Proceedings of Machine Learning Research %D 2026 %E Tong Zhang %E Miroslav Dudik %E Martin Jaggi %E Alekh Agarwal %E Sharon Li %E Dale Schuurmans %E Jerry Zhu %E Felix Berkenkamp %E Hanze Dong %E Alberto Bietti %F pmlr-v306-das26c %I PMLR %P 23016--23030 %U https://proceedings.mlr.press/v306/das26c.html %V 306 %X Hallucination is a central limitation of large language models (LLMs), and substantial effort has been devoted to understanding and mitigating it. Towards this, Kalai and Vempala (STOC 2024) introduced a probabilistic framework formalizing calibration and hallucination, and showed that, with high probability, calibrated LLMs hallucinate roughly at the rate of the "missing mass", a measure of how incomplete the training data is relative to its source. This raises two fundamental questions: (i) what property of a calibrated LLM makes hallucinations unavoidable? and (ii) can hallucinations be avoided by giving up calibration? We answer these questions by introducing a simpler property we call innovation that measures the tendency of a model to produce outputs outside the training data. We show that innovation is implied by the condition for hallucination identified by Kalai and Vempala, and, further, that it is an almost characterization of hallucination: hallucination implies innovation, and conversely, innovation implies hallucination with high probability. We also provide lower bounds on the hallucination rate based on the "innovation rate", and by relating innovation rate back to missing mass, we obtain new hallucination rate lower bounds based on missing mass that extend the results of Kalai and Vempala.
APA
Das, N.P. & Srivastava, P.. (2026). Innovation: An Almost Characterization of Hallucination. Proceedings of the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning, in Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 306:23016-23030 Available from https://proceedings.mlr.press/v306/das26c.html.

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