Flow Matching Calibration for Simulation-Based Inference under Model Misspecification

Pierre-Louis Ruhlmann, Michael Arbel, Florence Forbes, Pedro L. C. Rodrigues
Proceedings of the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning, PMLR 306:106235-106261, 2026.

Abstract

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is transforming experimental sciences by enabling parameter estimation in complex non-linear models from simulated data. A persistent challenge, however, is model misspecification. In a Bayesian setting, targeting posterior distributions, errors may arise from the simulator, the noise or prior modelling. These model components are only approximations of reality, and severe mismatches can yield biased or overconfident posteriors. We address this issue by introducing Flow Matching Corrected Posterior Estimation (FMCPE), a framework that leverages the flow matching paradigm to refine simulation-trained posterior estimators using a small set of calibration samples. Our approach proceeds in two stages: first, a posterior approximator is trained on abundant simulated data; second, flow matching transports its predictions toward the true posterior supported by calibration observations. We rely on the later to guide the correction, without requiring explicit knowledge of the misspecification form or of which model components are affected. This design enables FMCPE to combine the scalability of SBI with robustness to distributional shift. Across synthetic benchmarks and real-world datasets, we show that our proposal consistently mitigates the effects of misspecification, delivering improved inference accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to standard SBI baselines, while remaining computationally efficient.

Cite this Paper

BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v306-ruhlmann26a, title = {Flow Matching Calibration for Simulation-Based Inference under Model Misspecification}, author = {Ruhlmann, Pierre-Louis and Arbel, Michael and Forbes, Florence and Rodrigues, Pedro L. C.}, booktitle = {Proceedings of the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning}, pages = {106235--106261}, year = {2026}, editor = {Zhang, Tong and Dudik, Miroslav and Jaggi, Martin and Agarwal, Alekh and Li, Sharon and Schuurmans, Dale and Zhu, Jerry and Berkenkamp, Felix and Dong, Hanze and Bietti, Alberto}, volume = {306}, series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research}, month = {06--11 Jul}, publisher = {PMLR}, pdf = {https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mlresearch/v306/main/assets/ruhlmann26a/ruhlmann26a.pdf}, url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v306/ruhlmann26a.html}, abstract = {Simulation-based inference (SBI) is transforming experimental sciences by enabling parameter estimation in complex non-linear models from simulated data. A persistent challenge, however, is model misspecification. In a Bayesian setting, targeting posterior distributions, errors may arise from the simulator, the noise or prior modelling. These model components are only approximations of reality, and severe mismatches can yield biased or overconfident posteriors. We address this issue by introducing Flow Matching Corrected Posterior Estimation (FMCPE), a framework that leverages the flow matching paradigm to refine simulation-trained posterior estimators using a small set of calibration samples. Our approach proceeds in two stages: first, a posterior approximator is trained on abundant simulated data; second, flow matching transports its predictions toward the true posterior supported by calibration observations. We rely on the later to guide the correction, without requiring explicit knowledge of the misspecification form or of which model components are affected. This design enables FMCPE to combine the scalability of SBI with robustness to distributional shift. Across synthetic benchmarks and real-world datasets, we show that our proposal consistently mitigates the effects of misspecification, delivering improved inference accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to standard SBI baselines, while remaining computationally efficient.} }
Endnote
%0 Conference Paper %T Flow Matching Calibration for Simulation-Based Inference under Model Misspecification %A Pierre-Louis Ruhlmann %A Michael Arbel %A Florence Forbes %A Pedro L. C. Rodrigues %B Proceedings of the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning %C Proceedings of Machine Learning Research %D 2026 %E Tong Zhang %E Miroslav Dudik %E Martin Jaggi %E Alekh Agarwal %E Sharon Li %E Dale Schuurmans %E Jerry Zhu %E Felix Berkenkamp %E Hanze Dong %E Alberto Bietti %F pmlr-v306-ruhlmann26a %I PMLR %P 106235--106261 %U https://proceedings.mlr.press/v306/ruhlmann26a.html %V 306 %X Simulation-based inference (SBI) is transforming experimental sciences by enabling parameter estimation in complex non-linear models from simulated data. A persistent challenge, however, is model misspecification. In a Bayesian setting, targeting posterior distributions, errors may arise from the simulator, the noise or prior modelling. These model components are only approximations of reality, and severe mismatches can yield biased or overconfident posteriors. We address this issue by introducing Flow Matching Corrected Posterior Estimation (FMCPE), a framework that leverages the flow matching paradigm to refine simulation-trained posterior estimators using a small set of calibration samples. Our approach proceeds in two stages: first, a posterior approximator is trained on abundant simulated data; second, flow matching transports its predictions toward the true posterior supported by calibration observations. We rely on the later to guide the correction, without requiring explicit knowledge of the misspecification form or of which model components are affected. This design enables FMCPE to combine the scalability of SBI with robustness to distributional shift. Across synthetic benchmarks and real-world datasets, we show that our proposal consistently mitigates the effects of misspecification, delivering improved inference accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to standard SBI baselines, while remaining computationally efficient.
APA
Ruhlmann, P., Arbel, M., Forbes, F. & Rodrigues, P.L.C.. (2026). Flow Matching Calibration for Simulation-Based Inference under Model Misspecification. Proceedings of the 43rd International Conference on Machine Learning, in Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 306:106235-106261 Available from https://proceedings.mlr.press/v306/ruhlmann26a.html.

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