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A Complexity Measure for Active Learning in Multi-group Mean Estimation
Proceedings of Thirty Ninth Conference on Learning Theory, PMLR 336:472-473, 2026.
Abstract
We study a \emph{max-risk} objective for active learning in $d$-armed bandits: a learner adaptively allocates a budget of $T$ samples across $d$ groups to minimize the worst-case per-group uncertainty index $\max_{k\in[d]}\sigma_k^2/n_k$. We develop a local minimax framework and prove the first general lower bound for this objective, valid for any finite-variance hypothesis class $\mathcal H$. The bound separates difficulty into three orthogonal factors: a \emph{budget} term, a \emph{heteroscedasticity} index measuring how unevenly the uncertainty is spread across arms, and a model-dependent curvature functional, the \emph{Variance Local Curvature} ($\mathrm{VLC}$), which captures how much information a local change of variance creates inside $\mathcal H$. For smooth classes, the $\mathrm{VLC}$ is a reparametrization of a variance–Fisher information, with closed-form values for common families. Benchmarking against the strongest available upper bound shows near-optimality up to logarithmic factors in broad regimes, and pinpoints a systematic gap in highly heterogeneous instances. Our proof introduces two key ingredients: a loss-induced $\ell_1$ geometry on the decision space, and a representation-based instance generator that reduces hard-instance construction to an explicit random matrix calculation.