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Pareto-Optimal Probabilistic Explanations: Balancing Cognitive Constraints and User Preferences
Proceedings of the 42nd Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, PMLR 337:658-688, 2026.
Abstract
Machine learning classifiers deployed in critical domains require comprehensible explanations. Abductive explanations identify minimal feature sets guaranteeing a decision but suffer from two limitations: exceeding human cognitive limits and ignoring user preferences (actionability, fairness, cost). Probabilistic explanations reduce size via controlled error, while preferred explanations integrate preferences; however, these approaches remain disjoint. We introduce the first framework unifying these paradigms: preferred probabilistic explanations balancing cognitive constraints, probabilistic accuracy, and user preferences. We formulate the problem via weighted scalarization **WPPE** and Pareto optimization PPPE, prove **NP**-hardness for decision trees, and exploit supermodularity to establish approximation guarantees. We propose three complementary algorithms: weighted greedy descent **WGD** with ratio $(e^{p_w}-1)/p_w$, Pareto frontier enumeration **PFE** for interactive exploration of non-dominated trade-offs, and lexicographic stratified algorithm **LSA** for strict ordinal preferences. Our framework enables rigorous navigation of the Pareto-optimal trade-off space between cognitive limits and user preferences.