Partially Observed Structural Causal Models

Turan Orujlu, Jordan Kyle Matelsky, Martin V. Butz, Charley M Wu, Konrad Kording
Proceedings of the 42nd Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, PMLR 337:5111-5137, 2026.

Abstract

Here we introduce Partially Observed Structural Causal Models (POSCMs) as an extension of structural causal models (SCMs) to settings where upstream contexts co-determine both the interaction structure and downstream mechanisms on observed variables. POSCMs thus provide a self-contained causal modeling framework for endogenous graphs, allowing for an intervention hierarchy spanning node- and edge-level contexts and endogenous variable interventions. To define edge interventions, we separate node mechanisms into edge-local transmission channels that can be modified without changing the source node or the rest of the target mechanism. We provide an identifiability theory that clarifies which intervention families would suffice to disentangle structure formation from mechanisms. We then empirically validate these theoretical results in two external simulators: a biophysically detailed virtual human retina and a gene-regulatory analogue. The experiments reproduce non-identifiability under latent context, expose structure-mechanism confounding under latent edges, and recover pathway-level input-output relationships under targeted interventions, consistent with our positive {Markov} kernel identifiability results. Together, POSCMs provide an intervention-oriented framework for causal systems in which contexts, graph structure, mechanisms, and measurements are jointly generated and only partially observed.

Cite this Paper


BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v337-orujlu26a, title = {Partially Observed Structural Causal Models}, author = {Orujlu, Turan and Matelsky, Jordan Kyle and Butz, Martin V. and Wu, Charley M and Kording, Konrad}, booktitle = {Proceedings of the 42nd Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence}, pages = {5111--5137}, year = {2026}, editor = {Perković, Emilija and Malinsky, Daniel}, volume = {337}, series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research}, month = {17--21 Aug}, publisher = {PMLR}, pdf = {https://raw.githubusercontent.com/mlresearch/v337/main/assets/orujlu26a/orujlu26a.pdf}, url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v337/orujlu26a.html}, abstract = {Here we introduce Partially Observed Structural Causal Models (POSCMs) as an extension of structural causal models (SCMs) to settings where upstream contexts co-determine both the interaction structure and downstream mechanisms on observed variables. POSCMs thus provide a self-contained causal modeling framework for endogenous graphs, allowing for an intervention hierarchy spanning node- and edge-level contexts and endogenous variable interventions. To define edge interventions, we separate node mechanisms into edge-local transmission channels that can be modified without changing the source node or the rest of the target mechanism. We provide an identifiability theory that clarifies which intervention families would suffice to disentangle structure formation from mechanisms. We then empirically validate these theoretical results in two external simulators: a biophysically detailed virtual human retina and a gene-regulatory analogue. The experiments reproduce non-identifiability under latent context, expose structure-mechanism confounding under latent edges, and recover pathway-level input-output relationships under targeted interventions, consistent with our positive {Markov} kernel identifiability results. Together, POSCMs provide an intervention-oriented framework for causal systems in which contexts, graph structure, mechanisms, and measurements are jointly generated and only partially observed.} }
Endnote
%0 Conference Paper %T Partially Observed Structural Causal Models %A Turan Orujlu %A Jordan Kyle Matelsky %A Martin V. Butz %A Charley M Wu %A Konrad Kording %B Proceedings of the 42nd Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence %C Proceedings of Machine Learning Research %D 2026 %E Emilija Perković %E Daniel Malinsky %F pmlr-v337-orujlu26a %I PMLR %P 5111--5137 %U https://proceedings.mlr.press/v337/orujlu26a.html %V 337 %X Here we introduce Partially Observed Structural Causal Models (POSCMs) as an extension of structural causal models (SCMs) to settings where upstream contexts co-determine both the interaction structure and downstream mechanisms on observed variables. POSCMs thus provide a self-contained causal modeling framework for endogenous graphs, allowing for an intervention hierarchy spanning node- and edge-level contexts and endogenous variable interventions. To define edge interventions, we separate node mechanisms into edge-local transmission channels that can be modified without changing the source node or the rest of the target mechanism. We provide an identifiability theory that clarifies which intervention families would suffice to disentangle structure formation from mechanisms. We then empirically validate these theoretical results in two external simulators: a biophysically detailed virtual human retina and a gene-regulatory analogue. The experiments reproduce non-identifiability under latent context, expose structure-mechanism confounding under latent edges, and recover pathway-level input-output relationships under targeted interventions, consistent with our positive {Markov} kernel identifiability results. Together, POSCMs provide an intervention-oriented framework for causal systems in which contexts, graph structure, mechanisms, and measurements are jointly generated and only partially observed.
APA
Orujlu, T., Matelsky, J.K., Butz, M.V., Wu, C.M. & Kording, K.. (2026). Partially Observed Structural Causal Models. Proceedings of the 42nd Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, in Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 337:5111-5137 Available from https://proceedings.mlr.press/v337/orujlu26a.html.

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