JAWS-X: Addressing Efficiency Bottlenecks of Conformal Prediction Under Standard and Feedback Covariate Shift

Drew Prinster, Suchi Saria, Anqi Liu
Proceedings of the 40th International Conference on Machine Learning, PMLR 202:28167-28190, 2023.

Abstract

We study the efficient estimation of predictive confidence intervals for black-box predictors when the common data exchangeability (e.g., i.i.d.) assumption is violated due to potentially feedback-induced shifts in the input data distribution. That is, we focus on standard and feedback covariate shift (FCS), where the latter allows for feedback dependencies between train and test data that occur in many decision-making scenarios like experimental design. Whereas prior conformal prediction methods for this problem are in general either extremely computationally demanding or make inefficient use of labeled data, we propose a collection of methods based on the jackknife+ that achieve a practical balance of computational and statistical efficiency. Theoretically, our proposed JAW-FCS method extends the rigorous, finite-sample coverage guarantee of the jackknife+ to FCS. We moreover propose two tunable relaxations to JAW-FCS’s computation that maintain finite-sample guarantees: one using only $K$ leave-one-out models (JAW-$K$LOO) and a second building on $K$-fold cross validation+ (WCV+). Practically, we demonstrate that JAW-FCS and its computational relaxations outperform state-of-the-art baselines on a variety of real-world datasets under standard and feedback covariate shift, including for biomolecular design and active learning tasks.

Cite this Paper

BibTeX
@InProceedings{pmlr-v202-prinster23a, title = {{JAWS}-X: Addressing Efficiency Bottlenecks of Conformal Prediction Under Standard and Feedback Covariate Shift}, author = {Prinster, Drew and Saria, Suchi and Liu, Anqi}, booktitle = {Proceedings of the 40th International Conference on Machine Learning}, pages = {28167--28190}, year = {2023}, editor = {Krause, Andreas and Brunskill, Emma and Cho, Kyunghyun and Engelhardt, Barbara and Sabato, Sivan and Scarlett, Jonathan}, volume = {202}, series = {Proceedings of Machine Learning Research}, month = {23--29 Jul}, publisher = {PMLR}, pdf = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v202/prinster23a/prinster23a.pdf}, url = {https://proceedings.mlr.press/v202/prinster23a.html}, abstract = {We study the efficient estimation of predictive confidence intervals for black-box predictors when the common data exchangeability (e.g., i.i.d.) assumption is violated due to potentially feedback-induced shifts in the input data distribution. That is, we focus on standard and feedback covariate shift (FCS), where the latter allows for feedback dependencies between train and test data that occur in many decision-making scenarios like experimental design. Whereas prior conformal prediction methods for this problem are in general either extremely computationally demanding or make inefficient use of labeled data, we propose a collection of methods based on the jackknife+ that achieve a practical balance of computational and statistical efficiency. Theoretically, our proposed JAW-FCS method extends the rigorous, finite-sample coverage guarantee of the jackknife+ to FCS. We moreover propose two tunable relaxations to JAW-FCS’s computation that maintain finite-sample guarantees: one using only $K$ leave-one-out models (JAW-$K$LOO) and a second building on $K$-fold cross validation+ (WCV+). Practically, we demonstrate that JAW-FCS and its computational relaxations outperform state-of-the-art baselines on a variety of real-world datasets under standard and feedback covariate shift, including for biomolecular design and active learning tasks.} }
Endnote
%0 Conference Paper %T JAWS-X: Addressing Efficiency Bottlenecks of Conformal Prediction Under Standard and Feedback Covariate Shift %A Drew Prinster %A Suchi Saria %A Anqi Liu %B Proceedings of the 40th International Conference on Machine Learning %C Proceedings of Machine Learning Research %D 2023 %E Andreas Krause %E Emma Brunskill %E Kyunghyun Cho %E Barbara Engelhardt %E Sivan Sabato %E Jonathan Scarlett %F pmlr-v202-prinster23a %I PMLR %P 28167--28190 %U https://proceedings.mlr.press/v202/prinster23a.html %V 202 %X We study the efficient estimation of predictive confidence intervals for black-box predictors when the common data exchangeability (e.g., i.i.d.) assumption is violated due to potentially feedback-induced shifts in the input data distribution. That is, we focus on standard and feedback covariate shift (FCS), where the latter allows for feedback dependencies between train and test data that occur in many decision-making scenarios like experimental design. Whereas prior conformal prediction methods for this problem are in general either extremely computationally demanding or make inefficient use of labeled data, we propose a collection of methods based on the jackknife+ that achieve a practical balance of computational and statistical efficiency. Theoretically, our proposed JAW-FCS method extends the rigorous, finite-sample coverage guarantee of the jackknife+ to FCS. We moreover propose two tunable relaxations to JAW-FCS’s computation that maintain finite-sample guarantees: one using only $K$ leave-one-out models (JAW-$K$LOO) and a second building on $K$-fold cross validation+ (WCV+). Practically, we demonstrate that JAW-FCS and its computational relaxations outperform state-of-the-art baselines on a variety of real-world datasets under standard and feedback covariate shift, including for biomolecular design and active learning tasks.
APA
Prinster, D., Saria, S. & Liu, A.. (2023). JAWS-X: Addressing Efficiency Bottlenecks of Conformal Prediction Under Standard and Feedback Covariate Shift. Proceedings of the 40th International Conference on Machine Learning, in Proceedings of Machine Learning Research 202:28167-28190 Available from https://proceedings.mlr.press/v202/prinster23a.html.

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