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Volume 266: Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications (COPA 2025), 10-12 September 2025, Royal Holloway, London, UK

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Editors: Khuong An Nguyen, Zhiyuan Luo, Harris Papadopoulos, Tuwe Löfström, Lars Carlsson, Henrik Boström

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Preface

Preface

Harris Papadopoulos, Khuong An Nguyen, Zhiyuan Luo, Tuwe Löfström, Lars Carlsson, Henrik Boström; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:1-5

Foundations and Generalisations of Conformal Prediction

Inductive randomness predictors: beyond conformal

Vladimir Vovk; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:6-33

When Can We Reuse a Calibration Set for Multiple Conformal Predictions?

Alexander Balinsky, Alexander David Balinsky; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:34-42

Venn-Abers Testing of Exchangeability

Ilia Nouretdinov; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:43-62

Calibrating Without Labels: Source-Free Conformal Prediction Using Pseudo-Labels

Shachar Angelman, Rotem Nizhar, Jacob Goldberger; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:63-81

Privacy, Robustness and Security

Conformal Prediction of Classifiers with Many Classes based on Noisy Labels

Coby Penso, Jacob Goldberger, Ethan Fetaya; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:82-95

Privacy-Preserving Conformal Prediction Under Local Differential Privacy

Coby Penso, Bar Mahpud, Jacob Goldberger, Or Sheffet; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:96-112

Provably Efficient and Robust Conformal Prediction under a Realistic Threat Model

Alberto Carlevaro, Luca Oneto, Davide Anguita, Fabio Roli; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:113-132

High Probability Risk Control Under Covariate Shift

Duarte C. Almeida, João Bravo, Jacopo Bono, Pedro Bizarro, Mário A. T. Figueiredo; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:133-152

Multi-Output and Multi-Label Prediction

Exact and Approximate Conformal Inference for Multi-Output Regression

Chancellor Johnstone, Eugene Ndiaye; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:153-172

Conformal multi-hop relation detection and classification in knowledge graphs

Frederick Law; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:173-192

Dynamic Conformal Prediction for Multi-Target Regression: Optimising Informational Efficiency under Joint Validity

Filip Schlembach, Evgueni Smirnov, Mark H. M. Winands; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:193-213

Conformal LLM Multi-label Text Classification with Binary Relevance Approach

Viktor Örnbratt, Johan Hallberg Szabadváry; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:214-229

Incorporating Structural Penalties in Multi-label Conformal Prediction

Kostas Katsios, Harris Papadopoulos; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:230-249

Conformal Regression and Predictive Distributions

SEMF: Supervised Expectation-Maximization Framework for Predicting Intervals

Ilia Azizi, Marc-Olivier Boldi, Valérie Chavez-Demoulin; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:250-281

A Review and Comparative Analysis of Univariate Conformal Regression Methods

Jie Bao, Nicolo Colombo, Valery Manokhin, Suqun Cao, Rui Luo; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:282-304

Stacked conformal prediction

Paulo Marques; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:305-316

Hierarchical Copula-based Conformal Prediction and Exact Validity via Nested Prediction Regions

Bruce Cyusa Mukama, Soundouss Messoudi, Sylvain Rousseau, Sébastien Destercke; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:317-335

DUEn: An Ensemble Framework Enhanced by Distribution-Free Uncertainty for Regression

Songlin Du, Ling Luo, Ilia Nouretdinov, Uwe Aickelin; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:336-358

Explainability and Decision Making

Explaining Set-Valued Predictions: SHAP Analysis for Conformal Classification

Ulf Johansson, Cecilia Sönströd, Aicha Maalej; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:359-378

Conformal Predictive Decision Making: A Comparative Study with Bayesian and Point-Predictive Methods

Simon Lanngren, Martin Toremark, Johan Hallberg Szabadváry; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:379-404

Counterfactual Explanations for Conformal Prediction Sets

Aicha Maalej, Cecilia Sönströd, Ulf Johansson; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:405-424

Individualised Counterfactual Examples Using Conformal Prediction Intervals

James Adams, Gesine Reinert, Lukasz Szpruch, Carsten Maple, Andrew Elliott; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:425-444

Applications

Conformal Risk Control for Pulmonary Nodule Detection

Roel Hulsman, Valentin Comte, Lorenzo Bertolini, Tobias Wiesenthal, Antonio Puertas Gallardo, Mario Ceresa; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:445-463

Conformal Survival Bands for Risk Screening under Right-Censoring

Matteo Sesia, Vladimir Svetnik; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:464-514

Robust Vision-Based Runway Detection through Conformal Prediction and Conformal mAP

Alya Zouzou, Léo Andéol, Mélanie Ducoffe, Ryma Boumazouza; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:515-534

Temporal Multimodal Probabilistic Transformers for Safety Monitoring in Autonomous Driving Systems

Yehia Ahmed, Felippe Roza, Núria Mata; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:535-554

Conformal Prediction for Uncertainty Estimation in Drug-Target Interaction Prediction

Morteza Rakhshaninejad, Mira Jürgens, Nicolas Dewolf, Willem Waegeman; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:555-575

Online Testing, Change and Anomaly Detection

Validity and efficiency of the conformal CUSUM procedure

Vladimir Vovk, Ilia Nouretdinov, Alexander Gammerman; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:576-594

online-cp: a Python Package for Online Conformal Prediction, Conformal Predictive Systems and Conformal Test Martingales

Johan Hallberg Szabadváry, Tuwe Löfström, Rudy Matela; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:595-614

Testing Exchangeability for Multiple Sequences of P-values

Henrik Boström; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:615-632

Testing by Betting for Anomaly Detection in Rental E-Scooter GNSS Traces

Marco Capuccini, Rahul Rajendra Pai, Lars Carlsson; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:633-644

Anytime-Valid Tests of Group Invariance through Conformal Prediction

Tyron Lardy, Muriel F. Pérez-Ortiz; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:645-665

Conformal Anomaly Detection for Functional Data with Elastic Distance Metrics

Jason Adams, Brandon Berman, Joshua Michalenko, J. Derek Tucker; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:666-686

On the Integration of Cross-Conformal Prediction, Ensembles, and Sampling for Uncertainty Quantification in One-Class Anomaly Detection

Ishan Garg, Shayan Majumder; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:687-705

A Conformal Martingales Approach for Recurrent Concept Drift

Charalambos Eliades, Harris Papadopoulos; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:706-724

Testing Marginal and Conditional Coverage in Conformal Prediction for Non-Stationary Time Series via Value-at-Risk Backtesting

Konrad Retzlaff, Filip Schlembach, Dennis Bams, Philippe Dreesen; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:725-747

Extended Abstracts

A Bayesian framework for calibrating Gaussian process predictive distributions

Aurélien Pion, Emmanuel Vazquez; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:748-750

Conformal Predictive Simulations for Univariate Time Series

Thierry Moudiki; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:751-752

Reliable Household Demographic Classification

Javier Carreno, Khuong An Nguyen, Zhiyuan Luo, Andrew Fish; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:753-755

Conformal Prediction for Reliable Image Super-Resolution

Tapabrata Chakraborti, Samiran Dey; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:756-757

Detect Adversarial Examples with Exchangeability Martingale

Genghua Dong, Roman Bresson, Henrik Boström; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:758-761

Exponential Estimates for Contagion in Financial Networks

Dimitrios Ioannides, Stavros Ioannidis; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:762-764

Conformal Classification with New Labels

Tianmin Xie, Ziyi Liang, Stefano Favaro, Matteo Sesia; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:765-767

Class-Conditional Robust Conformal Prediction for Structured Perturbations

Luis Marchante Arjona, Protim Bhattacharjee, Peter Jung; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:768-770

Sequential Conformal Risk Control for Safe Railway Signaling Detection

Léo Andéol, Thomas Masséna; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:771-774

FlowGuard: Guarding Flow Matching via Conformal Sampling

Ziyun Li, Henrik Boström; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:775-777

Physics-Aware Conformal Prediction for Deep Learning-based Wheelchair Local Navigation

Sara Narteni, Alberto Carlevaro, Zeming Duan, Serge Autexier, Maurizio Mongelli; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:778-780

Conformal Prediction for Reliable Stock Selections

Ipek Kaya, Khuong An Nguyen; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:781-783

Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty in Conformal Prediction

Yusuf Sale, Alireza Javanmardi, Eyke Hüllermeier; Proceedings of the Fourteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 266:784-786

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