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Volume 329: Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, 2-4 September 2026, Mölnlycke Health Care, Mölndal, Sweden

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Editors: Ernst Ahlberg, Ulf Johansson, Henrik Boström, Alberto Carlevaro, Johan Hallberg Szabadváry, Lars Carlsson

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Preface

Preface

Ernst Ahlberg, Ulf Johansson, Henrik Boström, Alberto Carlevaro, Johan Hallberg Szabadváry, Lars Carlsson; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:1-5

Foundations and Theory

Aggregation in conformal e-classification

Vladimir Vovk; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:6-27

Inductive Venn–Abers and related regressors

Ivan Petej, Vladimir Vovk; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:28-61

Distortion and Consistency in Conformal Prediction

Ilia Nouretdinov; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:62-81

Skew-adaptive conformal prediction

Paulo C. Marques F., Helton Graziadei; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:82-100

Target-Aligned Full Conformal Bayes under Continuous Label Shift

Juyeon Kim, Hyeonsu Lee, Erkhembayar Jadamba, Seungjin Choi, Hyunjin Shin; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:101-132

Conformal Prediction via Transported Beta Laws

Thiago R. Ramos, Helton Graziadei, Luben M. C. Cabezas; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:133-168

Online monotone density estimation and log-optimal calibration

Rohan Hore, Ruodu Wang, Aaditya Ramdas; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:169-198

Corrected Max-Rank for Finite-Sample Conformal Prediction

Filip Schlembach, Evgueni Smirnov, Mark H. M. Winands; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:199-221

Conformal prediction or the good old DKW from the 50s?

Chancellor Johnstone, Eugene Ndiaye; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:1103-1118

Calibration, Regression and Predictive Distributions

Well-calibrated probabilities for prediction sets

Oskar Gustafsson, John Pavia, Styrbjörn Käll, Johan Hallberg Szabadváry, Jens Lundström, Ernst Ahlberg; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:222-248

CRPS-Optimal Binning for Univariate Conformal Regression

Paolo Toccaceli; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:249-278

Mondrian Conformal Regressors with Overlapping Categories

Henrik Boström, Ulf Johansson; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:279-293

Weighted Conformalized Quantile Regression for Active Learning

Niclas Ståhl, Cecilia Sönströd, Ulf Johansson; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:294-311

Scaling-Score Conformal Prediction for Multi-Target Regression

Sylvain Rousseau, Soundouss Messoudi; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:312-342

Conformal Calibration for Multi-Modal Regression with Missing Modalities

Ilia Azizi; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:343-377

When Post-Hoc Calibration Hurts: Platt Scaling and Isotonic Regression on Modern Tabular Models

Valery Manokhin, Daniel Grønhaug; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:378-381

Explainability and Decision Making

Turning Feature Attributions into Sufficient Explanations Using Conformal Prediction

Amr Alkhatib, Stephanie Lowry; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:382-401

Beyond the Predicted Class: Calibrated Explanations for Real Multiclass Decisions*

Ayham Hanna, Tuwe Löfström; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:402-421

Guarded Explanations: Conformal-Style Filtering for Distribution-Aware Rule Conditions

Tuwe Löfström, Anders Hjort, Helena Löfström; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:422-438

Performance Estimation in Hybrid Interpretable Models with Venn Predictors

Alberto García-Galindo, Marcos López-De-Castro, Ruben Armañanzas, Niclas Ståhl, Tuwe Löfström; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:439-462

Risk-Averse Evaluation of Conformal Scores through Conditional Value-at-Risk

Sara Narteni, Alberto Carlevaro, Fabrizio Dabbene, Maurizio Mongelli; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:463-485

Venn Predictive Decision-Making

Johan Hallberg Szabadváry, Lars Carlsson; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:486-508

Explaining Conformal Prediction: Diagnosing Reliability through Feature-Conditioned Outcomes and p-Value Margins

Antonio Caparrini, Miller-Janny Ariza-Garzón, Javier Arroyo; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:509-528

Conformal Selection of Counterfactual Explanations: From Minimal to Robust Recourse

Ulf Johansson, Aicha Maalej, Niclas Ståhl, Henrik Boström; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:529-547

When Is Conformal Coverage Free? Switching Thresholds for Predict-then-Optimize

Chandra Dronavajjala; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:548-575

Conformal Repair on a Budget: An Empirical Protocol for Retraining Decisions

Helena Löfström; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:576-591

Online Testing, Change and Anomaly Detection

Detecting Label Shift for Large Language Models with Conformal Test Martingales

Henrik Boström; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:592-612

Conformal Anomaly Detection in Python: Moving Beyond Heuristic Thresholds with nonconform

Oliver Hennhöfer, Maximilian Kirsch, Christine Preisach; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:613-632

Multivariate Change-Point Detection Using Feature-Based Inductive Conformal Martingales

Charalambos Eliades, Harris Papadopoulos; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:633-651

Detecting Adversarial Attacks in Image Sequences with Conformal Test Martingales

Genghua Dong, Ziyun Li, Henrik Boström; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:652-675

Conformalized Time Series Anomaly Thresholding with Latent Space Features

Nancy Xu, Henrik Boström; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:676-688

Multi-Output and Structured Prediction

MuLaConf: Multi-label Conformal Prediction

Kostas Katsios, Harris Papadopoulos; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:689-709

Generating Uncertainty Sets Using Conformal Prediction for Robust Optimization in Minimum Cost Flow

Zion Johnson, Bruce Cox, Chancellor Johnstone; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:710-729

Lightweight Online Multivariate Conformal Prediction

Abd Al-Rahman Hourani, Soundouss Messoudi, Sylvain Rousseau, Stefano Masi; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:730-749

Efficient Multi-Label Conformal Classification

Henrik Boström, Ulf Norinder; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:750-760

Robustness, Fairness and Distribution Shift

Fair Conformal Prediction for Individuals and Subgroups in Natural and Adversarial Settings: Theoretical Guarantees and Impossibility Results

Alberto Carlevaro, Luca Oneto, Massimo Massa, Davide Anguita, Fabio Roli; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:761-792

A Deployment Audit of Release-Side Risk in Conformal Triage under Prevalence Shift

Chengze Li, Xiao Liu, Hanrong Zhang, Haiyang Peng, Yanghao Ruan, Huanhuan Ma, Chunyu Miao, Qichao Zhou, Xiangrong Qi, Philip Yu; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:793-812

Particle-Based Conformal Prediction for Contact-Aware Uncertainty Calibration in Stratified Configuration Spaces

Luís Marques, Kristian Popov, Dmitry Berenson; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:813-843

Applications

Continuous Assurance of Digital Assets via Conformal Prediction over Polytope-Defined Operating Regions

Hee Jong Park, Kristoffer Skare, Cesar Augusto Ramos de Carvalho, Claas Rostock; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:844-866

When to Trust Simulated Data: Conformal Prediction for Selective Synthetic Data Integration

Sakir Furkan Yondem, Seyda Yoncaci, Gizem Karagoz, Benedikt Schlereth-Groh, Engin Avci, Ramin Tavakoli Kolagari, Fatima Rabia Yapicioglu; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:867-886

Exploring the Link Between Out-of-Distribution Detection and Conformal Prediction with Illustrations of Its Benefits

Paul Novello, Joseba Dalmau, Leo Andeol; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:887-915

Probabilistic Object Detection with Conformal Prediction

Christopher Ries, Moussa Kassem Sbeyti, Nicolas Bianco, Nadja Klein; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:916-936

Improving the Sensitivity of Gravitational Wave Detection with Weighted Conformal Prediction

Ann-Kristin Malz, Gregory Ashton, Nicolo Colombo; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:937-957

Trustworthy AI in Wound Care Documentation

Oskar Gustafsson, Jens Lundström, Ulf Johansson, John Pavia, Niclas Ståhl, Cecilia Sönströd, Ernst Ahlberg; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:958-983

TRACE-CRC: Trajectory-Adaptive Conformal Risk Control for Multi-Step Channel State Information Prediction

Kiarash Rezaei, Mehdi Sattari, Javad Aliakbari, Tommy Svensson, Paolo Monti, Carlos Natalino; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:984-1009

Pixelwise Split Conformal Prediction for Global Temperature Emulation via Leave-One-Out Ensemble Distillation

Bünyamin Korkut, Yunus Emre Karaoğlan, Ozan Çetin, Yusuf H. Sahin, Alper Ünal; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:1010-1028

Uncertainty-aware Decision Support in Power Grid Demand Forecasting

Tuwe Löfström, Johan Hallberg Szabadváry, Kristoffer Pettersson, Madalina Aldea, Helena Löfström; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:1029-1042

Extended Abstracts

Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Full-Scale Plant pH Forecasting under Process Drift

Jongyeop Lee, Jong Min Lee; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:1043-1045

Towards Group-Conditional Coverage Guarantees via Group-Invariant Representations

Paul Melki, Lionel Bombrun, Jean-Pierre Da Costa; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:1046-1048

Adaptive Conformal Prediction for 5G Link Adaptation under Distribution Shift

Emanuele Minotti, Genghua Dong, George Koudouridis; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:1049-1052

Finite-Sample-Corrected Conformal Test Martingales for Wireless Link Adaptation

Peixuan Wu, George Koudouridis, Genghua Dong; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:1053-1056

Martingale Detection of Treatment Effects in Wound Care

Oskar Gustafsson, John Pavia, Daniel Tsang, Ernst Ahlberg; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:1057-1059

Reliable Environmental Planning at HS2 Construction Sites

Jasmin Ahluwalia, Xu Feng, Khuong An Nguyen, Matthew Tye; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:1060-1062

What Can Conformal Risk Control Certify for PET/CT Tumour Segmentation?

Weiyue Zheng, Surajit Ray; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:1063-1065

Geometry-Aware Conformal Decoding for Motor BCI Systems

Roberto Bonini, Zhiyuan Luo, Matteo Filippini, Patrizia Fattori; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:1066-1069

A Gibbs-Boltzmann Approach to Conformal Prediction under Distribution Shift

Shivaprasad Channapura Sudhakara, Ilia Nouretdinov; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:1070-1072

Too Good to Conform: The Inverse Quality Paradox in Counterfactual Filtering

Fatima Rabia Yapicioglu, Abhishek Srinivasan, Juan Carlos Andresen, Henrik Boström; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:1073-1075

Conformal Score Prediction in Figure Skating Competitions

Varvara Kisel, Ilia Nouretdinov, Alex Gammerman; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:1076-1077

No Free Lunch in Few-Step Flow Matching for Conformal Prediction

Ziyun Li, Henrik Boström; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:1078-1083

Attune, Don’t Prune: A Conformal Framework for Fact Preservation in News Content Attunement

Alice Evelyn Ashby, Mai Nguyen, Zhiyuan Luo, Khuong An Nguyen; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:1084-1086

Label-Free Distribution Shift Detection in Truck Mode Classification via Uncertainty-Gap Monitors

Bek-Myrza Nurmatov, Valery Manokhin, Jens Heger; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:1087-1089

ConfBatch: Conformal Prediction for Adaptive Batch Sizing

Anna Chatzipapadopoulou, Stavros Toumpis, John Pavlopoulos; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:1090-1092

Conformal Poset Prediction for Label Ranking

Yusuf Sale, Eyke Hüllermeier; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:1093-1095

Robust Model Predictive Control via Conformal Prediction

Felix Czaja, Daniil Kazantsev, Eyke Hüllermeier; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:1096-1098

Conformal prediction as a solution to distribution shifts in medical image analysis

Sol Erika Boman, Nita Mulliqi, Luana Xuan Liu, Kimmo Kartasalo, Martin Eklund; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:1099-1102

Zero-Shot Probabilistic Stock Returns Forecasting with Pretrained RVFL Networks

T. Moudiki; Proceedings of the Fifteenth Symposium on Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications, PMLR 329:1119-1124

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